My prediction on Creed

    My prediction on Creed

    post #1 of 74
    Thread Starter 

    With another $15 price increase along the horizon, I remember from 2010 hearing about Creeds being $250 and now they are $330.  $80 in 3 short years.  And the inflation rate hasn't been going up that much.  What will the prices be like in 3 more years?

     

    Creeds, despite this, have been selling very well.  Too much, in fact.  I suspect this is due to the social networking boom over the past 5 years and the boom of the fragrance community on the internet since 2010 perhaps due to Youtube reviewers and more people signing up to Facebook.

     

    Creed uses natural and scarce ingredients which are carefully handpicked from regions of the world, and also they prefer to keep a small hand-made factory rather than industrialize their practices.  This means that the supply of Creeds probably won't be increasing too much, so the demand-side is the issue.

     

    My point, as many people here have been saying, Creed is essentially becoming more mainstream and less niche.  And yes, Creed, once a brand for kings, celebrities has become available to regular middle class people.  Of course, you would have to pay a big chunk out of your paycheck, but you can have the same product in your hands as a famous actor. 

     

    I enjoy the house so I won't bash them, but say that the prices probably will keep going up.  And in 5 years (if we extrapolate), we could very well be paying $425 + tax at retail price for the fragrances.  This will alienate a lot of people, for sure.  Is this a marketing ploy to keep less well-off people from wearing the brand (like how gyms have costly memberships to keep ghetto people out or how Abercrombie makes small clothing to keep out fat people)?  I'm not sure, and I don't think so.

     

    I think it's basically supply and demand at work, and there's not enough around for everybody, so those who want it most will pay the most.  I'm just saying, if you like Creed, get it now, because more people will find out about the house and the price will only go up more.

     

    Prophet Noirdrakkar has spoken.

    post #2 of 74

    On this flip side of this, is the fact that Creed has saturated the grey market and discounters more heavily than most other niche brands have.  I almost wonder if their extensive price increases are partly due to this.  A large portion of their customers are not paying near retail prices for their bottles, which just adds another interesting element to this business model.

    post #3 of 74
    Thread Starter 
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by naylor View Post

    On this flip side of this, is the fact that Creed has saturated the grey market and discounters more heavily than most other niche brands have.  I almost wonder if their extensive price increases are partly due to this.  A large portion of their customers are not paying near retail prices for their bottles, which just adds another interesting element to this business model.

     

    Yes, I think Creed is secretly fueling the grey market.  Getting sales at both levels, from the wealthier people and the not so wealthy people.  And yeah, it would make sense that their price increases wouldn't matter to most people.  People who pay retail will have no problem affording a little extra and people who go grey don't pay that price anyway.

     

    Without rent to pay, employees to pay and retail services to account for, the price of a Creed can easily be cut in half.

     

    It's very well plausible.

    post #4 of 74

    .... can pay 330 dollars for a Creed, but not to pay 50$ for an old out-of-production, golden-age, undescribable-quality perfume......

    post #5 of 74

    Does anyone know if there is much demand outside of America? 

     

    I don't think the brand has much traction in Europe, right?

    post #6 of 74

    All hail the prophet!

    post #7 of 74

    It can't be sourcing naturals costs happy.gif

     

    Tom Ford is the same though -- a steady increase in the last 3 years. My first bottle cost about £80

    post #8 of 74

    So what say we all buy big now and sell en masse in 5 years, thus precipitating the eventual collapse and making our fortunes? 

    post #9 of 74
    Thread Starter 
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Andre Moreau View Post

    .... can pay 330 dollars for a Creed, but not to pay 50$ for an old out-of-production, golden-age, undescribable-quality perfume......

     

    like..?

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mr. reasonable View Post

    Does anyone know if there is much demand outside of America? 

     

    I don't think the brand has much traction in Europe, right?

     

    well they do have a boutique in paris, right?  but yeah, nyc is like the epicenter of the USA.  still, america is THE country of consumption.

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jack Hunter View Post

    All hail the prophet!

     

    yes

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by HORNS View Post

    noirdrakkar, are you high all the time?

     

    lol, um i've been sober for a little over 2 years.  and i guess this is how i normally am lol

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kaern View Post

    It can't be sourcing naturals costs happy.gif

     

    Tom Ford is the same though -- a steady increase in the last 3 years. My first bottle cost about £80

     

    yea, this very would could be expected with tom ford too.

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AlHamr View Post

    So what say we all buy big now and sell en masse in 5 years, thus precipitating the eventual collapse and making our fortunes? 

     

    ah, the great wonders of speculative capitalism

    post #10 of 74
    When it gets too high, that will be a done deal for me.
    post #11 of 74

    ppl like myself will always be looking for deals and will never pay retail

    post #12 of 74

    Haven't bought a Creed in seven years. Lost all interest in their non-satisfying watercolors.

     

    Including Vintage Tabarome, I never paid nor would pay more than half price for any of them.

     

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mr. reasonable View Post

    Does anyone know if there is much demand outside of America? 

     

    I don't think the brand has much traction in Europe, right?

     

     

    This speaks directly to the sanitized, zero mystery having Creeds loved by most neophytes::

     

    "Interviewer: Speaking of America, you've said Americans have changed the fragrance business, making it more sanitized.

     

    Jacques Polge: Yes, indeed. You know, I started my career in the United States. Perfumes were then made of both good-smelling and bad-smelling ingredients. But the bad-smelling ingredients, when used in a certain way, brought something sensual and interesting to the final scent. The first time I arrived at work, they told me, “You want to work here? Then smell this.” They made me smell chives. With American puritanism, all these kinds of fragrances disappeared."

    post #13 of 74
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noirdrakkar View Post

     

    like..?

     

     

     

     

    only to say prices seen this month :

     

    Gucci pour Homme 1976 125 ml,  39 euros 

    Captain Molyneux 1st serie year 1975, 60ml,  22 euros 

    Coriolan by Guerlain 50 ml, 40 euros

    Joy de Jean Patou 30ml EDT  1980-edition, 25 euros

    Paco Rabanne pour Homme "metallic logo" 120ml. 25 euros.

    Habit Rouge EDT, squared big splash bottle 200ml, 80 euros

     

    we are about the equivalent of 330 dollars.

    post #14 of 74
    Creed 1849 - 75ml 240 Euros (at the left bank boutique in Paris)
    post #15 of 74
    Not a big fan of the house. I find them pretentious and uninspired minus a couple of releases. I'd rather pay $300 for something more creative.
    post #16 of 74
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noirdrakkar View Post

    Creed uses natural and scarce ingredients which are carefully handpicked from regions of the world, and...

    I don't believe for one moment that Creed uses higher quality materials than any other niche. That's just marketing hype. Creed prices are nothing more than a reflection of what the market will bear.

    There was a video link posted here a few months ago with someone from Creed talking about the positive impact Aventus has had on them. They're raking in the money. These price increases are in no way a reflection of inflation or their material costs increasing. They're jacking up prices because people will pay it. Until they push prices up to the point where they lose more customers than they gain in extra money from the price increases, they'll keep increasing prices even if their material costs were to decrease.

    7/24/13 at 6:35pm

    noirdrakkar said:



    With another $15 price increase along the horizon, I remember from 2010 hearing about Creeds being $250 and now they are $330.  $80 in 3 short years.  And the inflation rate hasn't been going up that much.  What will the prices be like in 3 more years?

     

    Creeds, despite this, have been selling very well.  Too much, in fact.  I suspect this is due to the social networking boom over the past 5 years and the boom of the fragrance community on the internet since 2010 perhaps due to Youtube reviewers and more people signing up to Facebook.

     

    Creed uses natural and scarce ingredients which are carefully handpicked from regions of the world, and also they prefer to keep a small hand-made factory rather than industrialize their practices.  This means that the supply of Creeds probably won't be increasing too much, so the demand-side is the issue.

     

    My point, as many people here have been saying, Creed is essentially becoming more mainstream and less niche.  And yes, Creed, once a brand for kings, celebrities has become available to regular middle class people.  Of course, you would have to pay a big chunk out of your paycheck, but you can have the same product in your hands as a famous actor. 

     

    I enjoy the house so I won't bash them, but say that the prices probably will keep going up.  And in 5 years (if we extrapolate), we could very well be paying $425 + tax at retail price for the fragrances.  This will alienate a lot of people, for sure.  Is this a marketing ploy to keep less well-off people from wearing the brand (like how gyms have costly memberships to keep ghetto people out or how Abercrombie makes small clothing to keep out fat people)?  I'm not sure, and I don't think so.

     

    I think it's basically supply and demand at work, and there's not enough around for everybody, so those who want it most will pay the most.  I'm just saying, if you like Creed, get it now, because more people will find out about the house and the price will only go up more.

     

    Prophet Noirdrakkar has spoken.

    7/24/13 at 11:13pm

    naylor said:



    On this flip side of this, is the fact that Creed has saturated the grey market and discounters more heavily than most other niche brands have.  I almost wonder if their extensive price increases are partly due to this.  A large portion of their customers are not paying near retail prices for their bottles, which just adds another interesting element to this business model.

    7/24/13 at 11:23pm

    noirdrakkar said:



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by naylor View Post

    On this flip side of this, is the fact that Creed has saturated the grey market and discounters more heavily than most other niche brands have.  I almost wonder if their extensive price increases are partly due to this.  A large portion of their customers are not paying near retail prices for their bottles, which just adds another interesting element to this business model.

     

    Yes, I think Creed is secretly fueling the grey market.  Getting sales at both levels, from the wealthier people and the not so wealthy people.  And yeah, it would make sense that their price increases wouldn't matter to most people.  People who pay retail will have no problem affording a little extra and people who go grey don't pay that price anyway.

     

    Without rent to pay, employees to pay and retail services to account for, the price of a Creed can easily be cut in half.

     

    It's very well plausible.

    7/25/13 at 4:58am

    Andre Moreau said:



    .... can pay 330 dollars for a Creed, but not to pay 50$ for an old out-of-production, golden-age, undescribable-quality perfume......

    7/25/13 at 5:22am

    mr. reasonable said:



    Does anyone know if there is much demand outside of America? 

     

    I don't think the brand has much traction in Europe, right?

    7/25/13 at 6:58am

    Jack Hunter said:



    All hail the prophet!

    7/25/13 at 7:24am

    Kaern said:



    It can't be sourcing naturals costs happy.gif

     

    Tom Ford is the same though -- a steady increase in the last 3 years. My first bottle cost about £80

    7/25/13 at 7:32am

    AlHamr said:



    So what say we all buy big now and sell en masse in 5 years, thus precipitating the eventual collapse and making our fortunes? 

    7/25/13 at 10:17am

    noirdrakkar said:



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Andre Moreau View Post

    .... can pay 330 dollars for a Creed, but not to pay 50$ for an old out-of-production, golden-age, undescribable-quality perfume......

     

    like..?

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mr. reasonable View Post

    Does anyone know if there is much demand outside of America? 

     

    I don't think the brand has much traction in Europe, right?

     

    well they do have a boutique in paris, right?  but yeah, nyc is like the epicenter of the USA.  still, america is THE country of consumption.

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jack Hunter View Post

    All hail the prophet!

     

    yes

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by HORNS View Post

    noirdrakkar, are you high all the time?

     

    lol, um i've been sober for a little over 2 years.  and i guess this is how i normally am lol

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kaern View Post

    It can't be sourcing naturals costs happy.gif

     

    Tom Ford is the same though -- a steady increase in the last 3 years. My first bottle cost about £80

     

    yea, this very would could be expected with tom ford too.

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AlHamr View Post

    So what say we all buy big now and sell en masse in 5 years, thus precipitating the eventual collapse and making our fortunes? 

     

    ah, the great wonders of speculative capitalism

    7/25/13 at 10:20am

    sjg3839 said:



    When it gets too high, that will be a done deal for me.

    7/25/13 at 12:28pm

    Tony T said:



    ppl like myself will always be looking for deals and will never pay retail

    7/25/13 at 3:12pm

    pluran said:



    Haven't bought a Creed in seven years. Lost all interest in their non-satisfying watercolors.

     

    Including Vintage Tabarome, I never paid nor would pay more than half price for any of them.

     

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mr. reasonable View Post

    Does anyone know if there is much demand outside of America? 

     

    I don't think the brand has much traction in Europe, right?

     

     

    This speaks directly to the sanitized, zero mystery having Creeds loved by most neophytes::

     

    "Interviewer: Speaking of America, you've said Americans have changed the fragrance business, making it more sanitized.

     

    Jacques Polge: Yes, indeed. You know, I started my career in the United States. Perfumes were then made of both good-smelling and bad-smelling ingredients. But the bad-smelling ingredients, when used in a certain way, brought something sensual and interesting to the final scent. The first time I arrived at work, they told me, “You want to work here? Then smell this.” They made me smell chives. With American puritanism, all these kinds of fragrances disappeared."

    7/26/13 at 7:09am

    Andre Moreau said:



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noirdrakkar View Post

     

    like..?

     

     

     

     

    only to say prices seen this month :

     

    Gucci pour Homme 1976 125 ml,  39 euros 

    Captain Molyneux 1st serie year 1975, 60ml,  22 euros 

    Coriolan by Guerlain 50 ml, 40 euros

    Joy de Jean Patou 30ml EDT  1980-edition, 25 euros

    Paco Rabanne pour Homme "metallic logo" 120ml. 25 euros.

    Habit Rouge EDT, squared big splash bottle 200ml, 80 euros

     

    we are about the equivalent of 330 dollars.

    7/27/13 at 5:46am

    hednic said:



    Creed 1849 - 75ml 240 Euros (at the left bank boutique in Paris)

    7/28/13 at 7:24pm

    ScentBound said:



    Not a big fan of the house. I find them pretentious and uninspired minus a couple of releases. I'd rather pay $300 for something more creative.

    7/28/13 at 7:36pm

    L'Homme Blanc Individuel said:



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noirdrakkar View Post

    Creed uses natural and scarce ingredients which are carefully handpicked from regions of the world, and...

    I don't believe for one moment that Creed uses higher quality materials than any other niche. That's just marketing hype. Creed prices are nothing more than a reflection of what the market will bear.

    There was a video link posted here a few months ago with someone from Creed talking about the positive impact Aventus has had on them. They're raking in the money. These price increases are in no way a reflection of inflation or their material costs increasing. They're jacking up prices because people will pay it. Until they push prices up to the point where they lose more customers than they gain in extra money from the price increases, they'll keep increasing prices even if their material costs were to decrease.