Don't get me wrong, I'm guilty of the same stuff myself. Couple months ago I was hot on a project that I thought would have about $12K in fixed costs which turns out was more like $60K. This was a much more complex project than this, but I even still vastly underestimated it.
Honestly, I don't think this will be that "big" of a project. For my operation it'll be pocket change. But I can certainly understand for the average joe thinking he's going to break into this market, what you're saying is good advice no doubt. So I think your apology is unwarranted.
I honestly will be satisfied if they move enough to cover costs and I have a 30% margin on the product in 6 months to a year. In the mean time I can hit the phones and see if any big boxes want to ramp it up. Conceptually I think I'm in a good area.
Worst case scenario will be some product that will be stale for a while. Even so, I'd be happy to have my own scents. Business aside, there is some pride in stuff like this. Part of you being you. But business is a primary concern here. I didn't become successful by letting my heart make decisions.
I will say this though. As a long time business owner, I've learned that telling people they shouldn't jump in head first is truly futile. I've had plenty of friends who don't understand the economics, the risk\reward ratios etc, who I've given serious tempered advice to who've always ignored it. Over the years I've learned to just ignore those conversations and end them quick. "Do you want my opinion, or do you want me to tell you you're right?"
So I completely understand where you're coming from.