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  1. #1
    Dependent pluran's Avatar
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    Default ...

    When I went to be last night, the poll regarding Habit Rouge and Egoiste had Egoiste at 12 and Habit Rouge at 7. I woke up this morning and those numbers had turned into Egoiste 20 and Habit Rouge 7.

    You're tellin me that between that time, Habit Rouge gained not one vote, but Egoiste gained 8?! *A snowball's chance in hell.

    The prior statistical average was a completely different animal. If one were doing statistics, this kind of rapid jump would be considered almost impossible.

    This is just one of many reasons why I don't put any stock whatsoever in online polls. Who's doing the voting? How many computers, ISP #'s does one person have, etc etc etc.

    I suppose polls are fun for people, but I'd never put any stock in the numbers they generate. *I've witnessed the same thing on numerous occasions regarding online polls of varying kinds. It's quite entertaining to watch.

    UPDATE: For all ye newcomers out there, do not buy bottles of fragrance based upon reviews or poll numbers. Always buy decants (1/3 oz or more) of said fragrance to see if you like it. Many times the reviews are well-written and sound so compelling, but you will be never cease to be surprised at what your nose detects and how the fragrance makes you feel. And this goes the other way. You may not think you would like a fragrances and it turns out to be the best thing you've ever smelled. Popularity doesn't mean much. Your nose does. Use it. Try as wide a variety of fragrances as possible.

    Get to it. See Scentemental. He's a super guy and owns well over three hundred fine fragrances that he can decant and send to you.
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  2. #2

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    well remember that the internet (and therefore bn) spans the globe. overnight, you've got a whole new batch of people in different timezones waking up. there may be cultural differences in taste between them. or simply differences in what they have been exposed to. for example, egoiste was widely available and known in the US. habit rouge not so much.
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    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  3. #3
    Dependent pluran's Avatar
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by liquid
    well remember that the internet (and therefore bn) spans the globe. *overnight, you've got a whole new batch of people in a different timezones waking up. *there may be cultural differences in taste between them. *or simply differences in what they have been exposed to. *for example, egoiste was widely available and known in the US. *habit rouge not so much.
    that kind of rapid jump is almost impossible. there were people all over the world logged on to this site last night, this morning, etc etc etc. there's not enough variability in that area to dictate those sort of shifts in poll numbers. not even close. the fact is that one person or group of people can run the numbers up drastically if they want. that's just the way it is.
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  4. #4

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    are you saying there's something fishy going on? that someone is fixing the poll?
    [SIZE=1][COLOR=RoyalBlue]
    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  5. #5

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    The bigger issue I believe is that the great majority of those participating in these polls have not tried both or all of the fragrance choices. The voting is therefore slanted toward the less expensive and/or more commonly available frags. I, for example, would love to see a true polling of people who have tried both Havana and Bois du Portugal. Considering the cost of BDP and the rarity of Havana, any such results here would be questionable. This is of course true of most polls including expensive or rare frags.

  6. #6
    Dependent pluran's Avatar
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by liquid
    are you saying there's something fishy going on? *that someone is fixing the poll?
    Did you read my first post?! Do people fix polls? Call it what you want, running up the numbers, etc etc etc. That doesn't mean it's fixed. That would be predetermined. We don't know any of that. I'm telling you about trends and inclinations regarding polls in general and that putting stock in the numbers is foolish. This goes for most polls. Study statistics and polls and you'll understand what I'm saying.
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  7. #7
    Dependent pluran's Avatar
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by stuigi
    The bigger issue I believe is that the great majority of those participating in these polls have not tried both or all of the fragrance choices. The voting is therefore slanted toward the less expensive and/or more commonly available frags. I, for example, would love to see a true polling of people who have tried both Havana and Bois du Portugal. Considering the cost of BDP and the rarity of Havana, any such results here would be questionable. This is of course true of most polls including expensive or rare frags.
    ? Online polls are not something to put stock in, whether it's fragrances, politics, etc etc etc.
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  8. #8

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by pluran
    Did you read my first post?! Do people fix polls? Call it what you want, running up the numbers, etc etc etc. That doesn't mean it's fixed. That would be predetermined. We don't know any of that. I'm telling you about trends and inclinations regarding polls in general and that putting stock in the numbers is foolish. This goes for most polls. Study statistics and polls and you'll understand what I'm saying.
    yes i did read your post. i just couldn't believe you were actually saying that ppl would bother fixing a little poll on BN, which is what it sounded like. afterall, if you rule out natural causes (some of which i mentioned), then the only thing left is a fix.

    i did study stats. if the vote was 50,000 to 50,000, and then overnight it became 100,000 to 50,000, then you would have something. as it is, it's an increase of eight votes. that's nothing.

    look, i'm not trying to fight with you about this lol. i'm just saying you might be getting a wee bit paranoid. on the other hand, when you say that these polls are meaningless overall, i totally agree.

    [SIZE=1][COLOR=RoyalBlue]
    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  9. #9

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Pluran,

    I don't know if you are aware of the fact that Egoiste recently was crowned the champion of markc's Field of 64 tournament for fragrances here on Basenotes. *For whatever reason, Egoiste has a huge following here on Basenotes. *I seriously doubt that anyone here is that heavily invested in the outcome of one of these silly polls to sign on under various ISPs to slant the voting in one particular direction. *These polls are for amusement purposes only....I think most people here realise that.

    GraySwan

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Oh darn, someone has caught me in my highly lucrative poll-fixing gambling operation!


    Anyone want odds for the True Star Man vs. Green Irish Tweed poll coming up?

  11. #11

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    well, there are a lot of people on this board that seemingly prefer egoiste, just by observing discussions and the monthly SOTD tallies ;D


  12. #12

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by pluran

    Get to it. See Scentemental. He's a super guy and owns well over three hundred fine fragrances that he can decant and send to you.

    I can vouch for that. He's a GREAT guy and VERY helpful, too!

  13. #13

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    You people better take my Egoiste poll seriously, if you know what's good for you...


    KO
    Are you not entertained??? Is this not why you are here??

  14. #14

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by GraySwan
    For whatever reason, Egoiste has a huge following here on Basenotes.
    The reason Egoiste has a huge following is because it just smells so great!

  15. #15

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by Rockford
    [quote author=GraySwan link=1148063730/0#8 date=1148072416]For whatever reason, Egoiste has a huge following here on Basenotes.
    The reason Egoiste has a huge following is because it just smells so great![/quote]

    It just doesn`t smell great, but it`s high quality fragrance. Work of art by Mr. Polge. Complex, timeless, unique, inimitable, distinctive, easy-to-wear-dead-sexy.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by Pigeon Murderer
    [quote author=Rockford link=1148063730/0#13 date=1148106999][quote author=GraySwan link=1148063730/0#8 date=1148072416]For whatever reason, Egoiste has a huge following here on Basenotes.
    The reason Egoiste has a huge following is because it just smells so great![/quote]

    It just doesn`t smell great, but it`s high quality fragrance. Work of art by Mr. Polge. Complex, timeless, unique, inimitable, distinctive, easy-to-wear-dead-sexy.[/quote]


    HaHa. *NOW we know who fixed the voting!

  17. #17

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by liquid
    [quote author=pluran link=1148063730/0#5 date=1148066623]Did you read my first post?! Do people fix polls? Call it what you want, running up the numbers, etc etc etc. That doesn't mean it's fixed. That would be predetermined. We don't know any of that. I'm telling you about trends and inclinations regarding polls in general and that putting stock in the numbers is foolish. This goes for most polls. Study statistics and polls and you'll understand what I'm saying.
    yes i did read your post. *i just couldn't believe you were actually saying that ppl would bother fixing a little poll on BN, which is what it sounded like. *afterall, if you rule out natural causes (some of which i mentioned), then the only thing left is a fix.

    i did study stats. *if the vote was 50,000 to 50,000, and then overnight it became 100,000 to 50,000, then you would have something. *as it is, it's an increase of eight votes. *that's nothing. *

    look, i'm not trying to fight with you about this lol. *i'm just saying you might be getting a wee bit paranoid. *on the other hand, when you say that these polls are meaningless overall, i totally agree.

    [/quote]

    I concur. I laughed when I read this thread. Thanks for providing my daily chuckle! Indeed, natural cause factors in to the effect. There is a plethora of mathematical constructs and psychological evidence to propagate what liquid is saying. Maybe that poll was discussed in Nostradamous's quatrains. Seriously, Pluran, you have been helpful to me in the past and offer great advice to people so don't crap out on me now. Ultimately people will make their own minds up. Polling is fun and gives the poller something to think about until they do make their mind up. We are all here for entertainment purposes only.

  18. #18
    Dependent pluran's Avatar
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    To preface, I wear Egoiste slightly more frequently than Habit Rouge, although I wear neither one that much. My interest in the poll is based entirely on principle.

    I NEVER stated that the poll was "fixed." But one never knows does one? It's hell being naive. Did you actually read, without emotion, what I said?

    It doesn't matter what the poll is for - entertainment, politics, etc. Online polls cannot be trusted. If you think they can you're a fool. Sure, it can be entertaining (in a rather lame sort of way), but I am saying that a lot of people here DO take the polls seriously and it would be good for them to remember that the results are often misleading. And YES, they can be tilted intentionally very easily..............JUST FOR FUN!

    The only reason I mentioned it is to create awareness. Some of you take it the wrong way. You just react emotionally. I understand. I would have to when I was younger.

    I am confident that it will still be hard for you to understand. This thread seems to have taken on a serious tone to you. But I don't find it serious at all. It's just a part of the game.

    There are quite a few of you on this site who take things WAY too seriously. This is evident by reading the threads each day. My presence here in general is entirely one of amusement. It always has been. Although, there have been some great threads with substantial information. I am always inspired by those. But I must say, a great deal of it I find to be a little pretentious.

    GET OVER YOURELVES! Get out and seek adventure if you're able. The only reason I'm not is because my body is busted up and I'm unable to for another couple of months. *

    Basenotes is awesome. I will agree with that.

    ................................


    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  19. #19

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    ^
    pluran, not sure if that was addressed to me, but i guess it was. it's not my goal to keep harping on this. i have not looked at the thread since it began. however, to say that i/we somehow misread your comments is incorrect. i understood you perfectly, without any emotion (why would anyone get emotional about it? i'm confused).

    first, you said that this jump of 8 votes is "almost impossible".

    second, you discounted possible natural causes.

    third, you said "Do people fix polls? Call it what you want, running up the numbers, etc etc etc."

    well my friend, that would be a "fix". though you did not specifically call it a "fix" yourself, you described it to a T. it's only a matter of semantics. you might as well come out and call it that. of course it's not a big deal. i am in no way taking this thread any more "seriously" than any other thread. but let's be accurate and honest about what we are saying here. anyway, i do agree that the polls are for fun. i think everyone knows that.

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    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  20. #20
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by liquid
    ^
    pluran, not sure if that was addressed to me, but i guess it was. *it's not my goal to keep harping on this. *i have not looked at the thread since it began. *however, to say that i/we somehow misread your comments is incorrect. *i understood you perfectly, without any emotion (why would anyone get emotional about it? *i'm confused). *

    first, you said that this jump of 8 votes is "almost impossible". *

    second, you discounted possible natural causes. *

    third, you said "Do people fix polls? Call it what you want, running up the numbers, etc etc etc."

    well my friend, that would be a "fix". *though you did not specifically call it a "fix" yourself, you described it to a T. *it's only a matter of semantics. *anyway, not a big deal. *i do agree that the polls are for fun. *i think everyone knows that. *
    who are you and what the hell are you talking about? you obviously haven't understood a word i've said. don't reply. i won't discuss it. everything i've written and the motivation behind it is entirely clear.

    bye now
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  21. #21

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    ^
    umm lol what? you're a strange one...
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    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  22. #22
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by liquid
    ^
    umm lol what? *you're a strange one...
    do not reply? i won't discuss it. did you see that part?

    keep the rest to yourself.
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  23. #23

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    ^
    haha yeah i saw it. i chose to ignore that part. you don't expect me to do stuff just because you say it do ya?

    [SIZE=1][COLOR=RoyalBlue]
    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  24. #24
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by liquid
    ^
    haha yeah i saw it. *i chose to ignore that part. *you don't expect me to do stuff just because you say it do ya? *

    how old are you? what is your intent?
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  25. #25

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    ^
    omg too funny! are you actually threatening me? hahaha! i'm 34. my intent is to have a discussion that makes sense. how about you?


    edit: ah well, i see you removed the threat. thanks.
    [SIZE=1][COLOR=RoyalBlue]
    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  26. #26
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by liquid
    ^
    omg too funny! *are you actually threatening me? *hahaha! *i'm 34. *my intent is to have a discussion that makes sense. *how about you?
    i'm older than you. my age is listed on my profile. i don't think you're 34. either way. i told you earlier i wouldn't discuss it. there's nothing to discuss. this is not about fragrance.


    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  27. #27

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by pluran
    i'm older than you. my age is listed on my profile. i don't think you're 34. either way. i told you earlier i wouldn't discuss it. there's nothing to discuss. this is not about fragrance.
    well i am indeed 34. but i don't believe you are 39. you know, you keep saying that you won't discuss it. yet you keep replying.
    [SIZE=1][COLOR=RoyalBlue]
    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  28. #28
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    replying but not discussing.
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  29. #29

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by DrBubba
    [quote author=pluran link=1148063730/0#0 date=1148063730]

    Get to it. See Scentemental. He's a super guy and owns well over three hundred fine fragrances that he can decant and send to you.

    I can vouch for that. He's a GREAT guy and VERY helpful, too![/quote]

    So much so, that if there would be a poll:
    shall I buy based on the result of a poll
    or
    based on the opinion of scentemental,

    the clear winner would be the latter.

    But if you don't believe it, you may initiate a poll about it.

    Sandy

  30. #30

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by pluran
    replying but not discussing.
    ;D

    okok. replying but not discussing. woowee, this has been fun. but i will drop it now. only because you are such a nice fellow.
    [SIZE=1][COLOR=RoyalBlue]
    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  31. #31
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    [/quote]only because you are such a nice fellow.
    [/quote]

    i can be.

    glad you've decided to drop it. there wasn't much to drop. mainly just nothing to continue.
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  32. #32

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    ^
    oh now don't go tempting me! i love a good flamewar!
    [SIZE=1][COLOR=RoyalBlue]
    Traveller, there is no path. You make the path as you walk. -- A. Machado[/COLOR][/SIZE]

  33. #33

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by pluran
    replying but not discussing.

    I don't really get it. Liquid hasn't said a single inflammatory thing in this thread. It is indeed very possible that the numbers could have naturally occurred in the manner they did. There is always a margin of error with all types of polls; the Internet is not much different than most other mediums of polling. I do indeed believe Egoiste has a much bigger following than Habit Rouge on this forum, and I feel the poll (accurately) reflects that. The polls here aren't hard and fast rules or guidelines, nor should they be, but I do believe they reflect community consensus and general opinion, which is, of course, their intended goal.

    As for the fixing of the polls, I believe the very idea is ludicrous, and completely unsubstantiated.

    Do you really feel the change in numbers on this specific poll were that outrageous and unprecedented?

  34. #34
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    did you actually read my posts? read my last extended post about this matter.

    where does it say i think the poll was fixed? it does NOT say that.

    did you see the part that mentioned egoiste had acquired 8 votes in a short time period and habit rouge none? whereas before the vote was very close...12-7, a few hours later the vote was 20-7.

    there are variables. but they are not likely to have been responsible for this rapid jump. that's just common sense. no matter what your knowedge of polls.

    no one will know so it's futile to talk about it.

    i think you need to read everything i wrote. what you are perceiving regarding this issue and what i wrote are not the same thing. this often happens in these situations.

    has this become tedious? to say the least.

    keep up the polls. they're informative and inspiring. and fun!
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  35. #35
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    I always liked Monty Python's Flying Circus.

  36. #36

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    First, I don't believe 12-7 is close, at all; in fact, it means that 71 percent more Basenoter's prefer Egoiste.
    That is almost a landslide.

    <<The prior statistical average was a completely different animal. If one were doing statistics, this kind of
    rapid jump would be considered almost impossible.>>


    That is completely incorrect, on many levels. Because there were so few votes, that kind of rapid change is not
    only possible, but also relatively common. When you take into account the variables involved with this specific poll,
    this jump is actually predictable. Those variables are numerous, but most importantly is the fact that basenoters
    generally vastly prefer Egoiste to Habit Rouge. You'd be surprised what overwhelming numbers like that can do to
    a poll. If we were dealing with over single and low double digit numbers, you'd have more of a case, but, as it stands, there is absolutely nothing statistically impossible, or even improbable about the poll in question. What is going on is basic statistical bias. If you want to read more about statistical bias, here is a good link:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_bias


    <<This is just one of many reasons why I don't put any stock whatsoever in online polls. Who's doing the voting? How many computers, ISP #'s does one person have, etc etc etc.>>

    This is a problem with any kind of poll. I would strongly suggest, given your concerns, that you not put much stock
    into most polls. It's very difficult to have the 'perfect' poll that contains no statistical bias. If one is to put any stock
    in polls, one should understand the fundamentals of polling and statistics in general. The Egoiste Vs. Habit Rouge
    poll was in no way skewed: you learned which fragrance was preferred by voting basenotes members. And, it just
    so happens that the outcome of that poll is congruent with the basenotes general consensus (From my own observation and the observation of other members I have talked to).

    Also, I am not sure what you mean by ISP #'s? Do you mean people are purchasing new static IP's or trying frantically to get new, unique IP's from their ISPs DHCP Server? Or maybe, people are scouring the internet for hours on end looking for public proxy servers so they can spend hours skewing the results in favor of their favorite fragrance? I don't even know what to say in regards to that kind of paranoia. That is akin to saying people are getting multiple phone numbers so they can skew polls conducted by telephone. Sure, it can happen, but you have to look at motivating factors.


    <<the fact is that one person or group of people can run the numbers up drastically if they want. that's just the way it is.>>

    The same thing can happen in any poll, over any medium. Statistical corruption can happen by numerous means. Once again, It is incredibly important to look at the motivating factors behind such a deliberate corruption. In this case, I don't believe there are any motivating factors for any members to create such a corruption of statistical data.


    <<Did you read my first post?! Do people fix polls? Call it what you want, running up the numbers, etc etc etc. That doesn't mean it's fixed. That would be predetermined.>>

    Now, I am confused. You don't believe the poll was fixed or intentionally corrupted, so then why shouldn't we put any stock in the polls result? I don't get where your bone of contention is with the specific poll. First, you stated the increase was a statistical improbability, but then you say it wasn't fixed. What exactly are you saying? I just can't grasp what you are trying to say here. What, then, caused this statistical 'impossibility' if it wasn't a deliberate corruption?

    Also, I don't believe members put too much stock into basenotes polls. I believe you are making a mountain out of an ant hill. You seem to be the only member here that is taking these polls seriously, which I find incredibly ironic given the content of your posts in this thread.


    <<but I am saying that a lot of people here DO take the polls seriously and it would be good for them to remember that the results are often misleading.>>

    Do you care to back that statement up? I think polls carry very little weight here. I believe, as other members have pointed out, that polls exist primarily for fun. You seem to be the only person not having fun with them.

    <<And YES, they can be tilted intentionally very easily..............JUST FOR FUN!>>

    I don't know about you, but I don't call creating new accounts, scouring the internet for proxy servers, and
    taking other precautions very 'fun'. Creating new accounts alone (A sloppy method) is already a pain in the ass
    and I am sure grant would notice multiple signups under the same IP. So, then, finding a good chunk of proxy servers and manually changing browser proxy settings constantly just to skew basenotes poll results is, IMHO, far from fun. But, then again, I'm not all that hip on what is fun these days.


    <<It doesn't matter what the poll is for - entertainment, politics, etc. Online polls cannot be trusted>>

    I firmly believe polls can be trusted for entertainment. I am sure most people here agree with me.
    Online polling is pretty much as accurate as other methods of polling, really. The blanket statements you are making show an unwarranted fear and lack of understanding of the internet. Internet polls can be just as accurate as polling through other means.

    <<The only reason I mentioned it is to create awareness.>>

    I don't believe your 'insight' was needed on this matter. I believe you are concerned over a non-issue.

    <<I am confident that it will still be hard for you to understand. This thread seems to have taken on a
    serious tone to you. But I don't find it serious at all. It's just a part of the game.>>


    Huh? Did you take your haldol today?

    <<GET OVER YOURELVES! Get out and seek adventure if you're able. The only reason I'm not is becausee
    my body is busted up and I'm unable to for another couple of months.>>


    Haldol sounds like it might help you.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haldol

  37. #37
    Dependent pluran's Avatar
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    That's a lot to reply to. And for what? I already said what I had to say. I don't recall insulting you directly in the process. I expected more from a moderator, ex-moderator, whatever.

    That must have taken a lot of effort. I commend you on your endurance.

    I find this quote from Mark Twain applicable to your last post:

    "Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you would like."

    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  38. #38
    Dependent pluran's Avatar
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    .
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  39. #39

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    <<That's a lot to reply to. And for what? I already said what I had to say. I don't recall insulting you directly in the process. I expected more from a moderator, ex-moderator, whatever.>>


    I've been told I am a rather prolific writer. It was really no trouble at all. You didn't insult me, per se, but you did have a very insulting and condescending tone throughout the entire thread, and that is probably what made me post. I am not a moderator, nor have I ever been.


    <<I find this quote from Mark Twain applicable to your last post:
    "Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you would like.">>


    Huh? If I distorted any facts, please point them out. So far, your posts contain nothing more than sophistry, ill contrived rhetoric, and non sequiturs, to which I have replied with my own opinion. You can reply to and challenge any part of my argument that you see fit, then we can have an intelligent discussion on statistics and basenotes polls, if you'd like.

    This entire time, you haven't really responded reasonably to anyones comments. You simply keep saying things like [ch8220]you obviously haven't understood a word i've said[ch8221] and [ch8220]GET OVER YOURELVES![ch8221]

    <<You just react emotionally. I understand. I would have to when I was younger. >>

    I think you've reacted more emotionally than anyone else in this thread.

    Maybe I just don't understand, Pluran. Is that the case?


  40. #40
    Dependent pluran's Avatar
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    .
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  41. #41
    Dependent pluran's Avatar
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    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    Quote Originally Posted by IPaidForThisName
    First, I don't believe 12-7 is close, at all; in fact, it means that 71 percent more Basenoter's prefer Egoiste.
    That is almost a landslide.

    <<The prior statistical average was a completely different animal. If one were doing statistics, this kind of
    rapid jump would be considered almost impossible.>>


    That is completely incorrect, on many levels. Because there were so few votes, that kind of rapid change is not
    only possible, but also relatively common. When you take into account the variables involved with this specific poll,
    this jump is actually predictable. Those variables are numerous, but most importantly is the fact that basenoters
    generally vastly prefer Egoiste to Habit Rouge. You'd be surprised what overwhelming numbers like that can do to
    a poll. If we were dealing with over single and low double digit numbers, you'd have more of a case, but, as it stands, there is absolutely nothing statistically impossible, or even improbable about the poll in question. What is going on is basic statistical bias. If you want to read more about statistical bias, here is a good link:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_bias


    <<This is just one of many reasons why I don't put any stock whatsoever in online polls. Who's doing the voting? How many computers, ISP #'s does one person have, etc etc etc.>>

    This is a problem with any kind of poll. I would strongly suggest, given your concerns, that you not put much stock
    into most polls. It's very difficult to have the 'perfect' poll that contains no statistical bias. If one is to put any stock
    in polls, one should understand the fundamentals of polling and statistics in general. The Egoiste Vs. Habit Rouge
    poll was in no way skewed: you learned which fragrance was preferred by voting basenotes members. And, it just
    so happens that the outcome of that poll is congruent with the basenotes general consensus (From my own observation and the observation of other members I have talked to).

    Also, I am not sure what you mean by ISP #'s? Do you mean people are purchasing new static IP's or trying frantically to get new, unique IP's from their ISPs DHCP Server? Or maybe, people are scouring the internet for hours on end looking for public proxy servers so they can spend hours skewing the results in favor of their favorite fragrance? I don't even know what to say in regards to that kind of paranoia. That is akin to saying people are getting multiple phone numbers so they can skew polls conducted by telephone. Sure, it can happen, but you have to look at motivating factors.


    <<the fact is that one person or group of people can run the numbers up drastically if they want. that's just the way it is.>>

    The same thing can happen in any poll, over any medium. Statistical corruption can happen by numerous means. Once again, It is incredibly important to look at the motivating factors behind such a deliberate corruption. In this case, I don't believe there are any motivating factors for any members to create such a corruption of statistical data.


    <<Did you read my first post?! Do people fix polls? Call it what you want, running up the numbers, etc etc etc. That doesn't mean it's fixed. That would be predetermined.>>

    Now, I am confused. You don't believe the poll was fixed or intentionally corrupted, so then why shouldn't we put any stock in the polls result? I don't get where your bone of contention is with the specific poll. First, you stated the increase was a statistical improbability, but then you say it wasn't fixed. What exactly are you saying? I just can't grasp what you are trying to say here. What, then, caused this statistical 'impossibility' if it wasn't a deliberate corruption?

    Also, I don't believe members put too much stock into basenotes polls. I believe you are making a mountain out of an ant hill. You seem to be the only member here that is taking these polls seriously, which I find incredibly ironic given the content of your posts in this thread.


    <<but I am saying that a lot of people here DO take the polls seriously and it would be good for them to remember that the results are often misleading.>>

    Do you care to back that statement up? I think polls carry very little weight here. I believe, as other members have pointed out, that polls exist primarily for fun. You seem to be the only person not having fun with them.

    <<And YES, they can be tilted intentionally very easily..............JUST FOR FUN!>>

    I don't know about you, but I don't call creating new accounts, scouring the internet for proxy servers, and
    taking other precautions very 'fun'. Creating new accounts alone (A sloppy method) is already a pain in the ass
    and I am sure grant would notice multiple signups under the same IP. So, then, finding a good chunk of proxy servers and manually changing browser proxy settings constantly just to skew basenotes poll results is, IMHO, far from fun. But, then again, I'm not all that hip on what is fun these days.


    <<It doesn't matter what the poll is for - entertainment, politics, etc. Online polls cannot be trusted>>

    I firmly believe polls can be trusted for entertainment. I am sure most people here agree with me.
    Online polling is pretty much as accurate as other methods of polling, really. The blanket statements you are making show an unwarranted fear and lack of understanding of the internet. Internet polls can be just as accurate as polling through other means.

    <<The only reason I mentioned it is to create awareness.>>

    I don't believe your 'insight' was needed on this matter. I believe you are concerned over a non-issue.

    <<I am confident that it will still be hard for you to understand. This thread seems to have taken on a
    serious tone to you. But I don't find it serious at all. It's just a part of the game.>>


    Huh? Did you take your haldol today?

    <<GET OVER YOURELVES! Get out and seek adventure if you're able. The only reason I'm not is becausee
    my body is busted up and I'm unable to for another couple of months.>>


    Haldol sounds like it might help you.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haldol
    "You have to paint things black if you want to make future possibilities more vivid."
    - Michel Foucault

    The entire universe is based upon your ability to conclude the new idea which is the summoning forth of the new life into the new space.

    Man, this site has really gone to shit. Seems like every person who knew anything about perfume has left the building, and I can see why.



  42. #42
    Overcome By Fumes
    Join Date
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    Location
    Tacoma, WA
    Posts
    3,275

    Default Re: Putting Stock in Poll Results

    I'd like to echo pluran's warning!

    Newcomers, do not buy fragrances based on the results of polls or reviews! I recommend against using the 8 ball, coin flips, fortune tellers and encrypted writings on bathroom walls as well. And since you are newcomers, and I'm an old guy (even older than 40!), you should probably not trust your own nose!

    The best way would be for you to send me money, lots of money, and I will come up with practically guaranteed, nearly infallible advice on what fragrances will smell best on you. That will protect you from the sneaky connivances of poll-fixers and reviewers planted by the industry!

    Always glad to be of service.



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