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  1. #1

    Default Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    I had some free time, and I wanted to check how many new perfumes were produced during a single year.
    Here's the results: I wonder if the crack is near.....


    Year nr. of new perfumes

    1920 63
    1925 66
    1930 40
    1935 33
    1940 18
    1945 22
    1950 34
    1955: 22
    1960 13
    1965 23
    1970 31
    1975 48
    1980 53
    1985 75
    1990 100
    1995 196
    2000 463
    2005 585
    2006 768
    2007 779
    2008 844
    2009 845
    2010 833
    2011 1178
    2012 1468
    2013 (2 months) : 250

    ----------------------------------

  2. #2

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Wow - where did u find the figures?
    And who's buying - the new markets?

  3. #3

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    I see a disturbing trend....the explosion of gourmand!

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Would like to know where these figures came from too.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    What happened in 1960, less perfumes than during WWII.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Quote Originally Posted by hednic View Post
    Would like to know where these figures came from too.
    Seemingly from the bn directory... which, of course, is not the proper universe to gather such data.
    Simplex Sigillum Veri

  7. #7

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    What does "approaching the crack" mean?

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Quote Originally Posted by HORNS View Post
    What does "approaching the crack" mean?
    I'm guessing it refers to the point where a market is saturated, matures, and starts a decline.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    There would be more than 250 being released onto the market, some of these 250 will stay around and some that have been released but perhaps the *western* world is not aware of, will be *discovered*.

    Anyone who works with data knows that you massage the figures and parameters until you get the result that is required.

    2009 - 845
    2010 - 833.....which ones were these and how long will they continue?

    When every celebrity and every type of design/label house can cash into this, the figures are bound to get bigger.

    The time when people had one great watch, or women wore one type of foundation (don't even go near shoes and handbags) are over!

    And I believe there were far more perfumes created in 1945 as WW2 was ending and the clever marketing places knew there would be an explosion of gifts of perfume.

    If the perfume industry collapses........well it's going to be a huge crack!

    Edit - buy double bottles it's going to be a clash of fragrances every time you set foot outside your door!
    When we come to the other world and meet the millions of Jews who died in the camps and they ask *what have you done for us*.......I will say * I did not forget you*. Simon Wiesenthal

  10. #10

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Variety is the spice of life.

    for swap/sale:





  11. #11
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    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    I suspect these numbers came from the OP researching the fragrance database on this website.

    It's not necessarily that more fragrances are produced today. It's more so that fragrances today are more noticed today than fragrances back then. There were probably hundreds of fragrances in 1970, but only 30 or so were memorable enough to be posted on the database today.

  12. #12

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    I guess it means that more consumers are interesting in buying fragrances. Hard to gauge a trend.
    "No sweet perfume ever tortured me more than this." Desert Rose by Sting and Cheb Mami, Album 1999.

  13. #13

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Hi , I have to apologize, I should have written "crash" instead of "crack". I Mean there are so many perfumes that.. yes! the market will be over-satured soon.
    I used the BN data to compile the list, and in some case I have do some mistakes ...by defect. During year 2007, I wrote 779 new perfumes launched in the market; actually seem to be almost 900, as reported on another blog.

    Apart this, some perfumes from older ages could not appear on BN directory, but there is a terrific difference between the beginning of Nineties, for example, and today (10x)
    I wonder if the perfumes appeared in year 2012 are more than those launched during the whole decade 1980-1989.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Andre,

    It is a very interesting topic. And yes there has been an explosion of new fragrances from say 80's to 90's but there are many variables that this can be attributed to, including changing demographics in the established market and new markets.

    As I stated in an earlier post on this thread a lot of people no longer see having just a couple of fragrances as *enough*.

    Scent has also become something not just a middle and upper class essential or hobby.

    There are many scents and lines that regardless of what people think of them are selling well elsewhere.......the rouge bunny rouge scents in Russia and the whole Korres line in Greece.

    Perfume is included in the *luxury* market and this is a difficult market to predict exactly in these times. The main houses are not holding back with releases and certainly want to grab a piece of a growing pie. Louis Vuitton is an example with supposedly a release due later this year. As there were originally three Louis Vuitton fragrances that it seems have been lost completely......I am certain they will not stop at one perfume as their demographics would demand different scents.

    It will be an interesting time......sadly I think some better fragrances might disappear from the *new bunch on the block* while others with enter a complete series.

    Thanks for your work on analysis of the BN database

    regards

    sea roses
    When we come to the other world and meet the millions of Jews who died in the camps and they ask *what have you done for us*.......I will say * I did not forget you*. Simon Wiesenthal

  15. #15

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    + 1
    Quote Originally Posted by HORNS View Post
    What does "approaching the crack" mean?

  16. #16

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrč Moreau View Post
    Hi , I have to apologize, I should have written "crash" instead of "crack". I Mean there are so many perfumes that.. yes! the market will be over-satured soon.
    I used the BN data to compile the list, and in some case I have do some mistakes ...by defect. During year 2007, I wrote 779 new perfumes launched in the market; actually seem to be almost 900, as reported on another blog.

    Apart this, some perfumes from older ages could not appear on BN directory, but there is a terrific difference between the beginning of Nineties, for example, and today (10x)
    I wonder if the perfumes appeared in year 2012 are more than those launched during the whole decade 1980-1989.
    Maybe they're just being recorded more accurately now, like most things?
    Although, admittedly, there would appear to be more releases these days.

    There is probably a greater number of generally known scents as we access new worldwide markets (like the traditional Eastern ones), but many of those are missing, even if used by very many people overall, purely because nobody (us) has bothered to include them yet (even if aware of them).
    But their partial inclusion will have skewed the figures a little.

    The Directory reflects market fluctuations, as it must, so many that have not found lasting favour from the past will not have been included, whilst new ones will be included whether they persist or not, just because we can.

    This is not intended to belittle the Directory which, although a valuable resource (and a huge undertaking) will never be 'complete' - it's just not possible.

    I wonder how many of those mentioned in this recent thread, for example, are in the Directory:-
    http://www.basenotes.net/threads/330...t=#post2880587

    So they exist, uncounted.
    Last edited by lpp; 4th April 2013 at 10:24 PM.

  17. #17
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    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Quote Originally Posted by HORNS View Post
    What does "approaching the crack" mean?
    Considering some of the releases in the past 2 years, I would think it's very likely some of the perfumers have been approaching some crack.

  18. #18

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    I agree about the fact many perfumes exist and are uncounted, it's true.
    But this was true yesterday, and still today. Today there are plenty of new perfumes not recorded on Basenotes or Fragrantica.

    Anyway, my focus was the fact that too many perfumes are on the market in these days.

  19. #19

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Not that I doubt your very genuine and enthusiastic research in any way, but this is not a true representation of any explosion of new perfumes, merely a representation of the way they are launched as an item and recorded as such.

    Perfumes have been produced ad infinitum since before unguents. If we could read hieroglyphics to any detail, you would see the huge quantity of ingredients that were ordered to make them. There were many different versions then. So very much so, that in Greek times each part of the body had to have a different perfume. The Romans put perfume on their animals and had perfumed fountains. Then there is the vast array of Arabic perfumes. They mixed perfume even in with cement to build special buildings.... The Spaniards and the perfumed gloves.... A complete English obsession with fragranced anythings in the stinky 17th century... etc etc etc. I would imagine there were quite a few variations on a perfume theme for all these tasks. Beautiful and good quality perfumes have been around in far more plentiful supplies than these new meagre flysprays in over colourful boxes.

    It is the pushy marketing that is the modern phenomena, not the perfumes themselves. History books will tell you much of that.

    IMO there is no such thing as too many real perfumes, only too many ill considered and rushed perfume launches to make money with no concern for the quality of the goods. It was ever so with rogues. They are merely heavily disguised these days.

    Let your nose be the judge. You can never have too many beautiful perfumes in the same way as there can never be too many flowers.

  20. #20

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Quote ''Anyway, my focus was the fact that too many perfumes are on the market in these days.'' end quote

    If you mean that too many ill-considered ones are being released, then I would agree, as mumsy says.
    But that seems to be where we are right now.
    Last edited by lpp; 5th April 2013 at 04:07 PM.

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    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    wherever there's an industry with high profit, there will be a lot of competitors.

  22. #22

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    I would point out another aspect: considering only the "new" perfumes launched in last five years (2008 to 2012), we have a total of about 5.500 "new" perfumes arrived in the market. Is this normal ?
    How long can this trend continue?

  23. #23

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    ...
    Last edited by lpp; 12th April 2013 at 04:36 PM.

  24. #24

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrč Moreau View Post
    I would point out another aspect: considering only the "new" perfumes launched in last five years (2008 to 2012), we have a total of about 5.500 "new" perfumes arrived in the market. Is this normal ?
    How long can this trend continue?
    As long as humans are on the planet.

    Even if bubbles burst, some people will revert to buying *different* fragrances that make them smell *good*.

    People buy rip-offs and duds all the time (despite the dangers) to smell good (in their minds).
    When we come to the other world and meet the millions of Jews who died in the camps and they ask *what have you done for us*.......I will say * I did not forget you*. Simon Wiesenthal

  25. #25
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    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    The real question is: ........................whose crack?

  26. #26

    Default Re: Perfume industry: approaching the crack?

    Quote Originally Posted by mumsy View Post
    Not that I doubt your very genuine and enthusiastic research in any way, but this is not a true representation of any explosion of new perfumes, merely a representation of the way they are launched as an item and recorded as such.
    /thread

    This "research" is only a representation of BN's growth, not of the industry at all. The industry has grown, yes, but couldn't you have accessed the many freely available industry publications that actually perform market research?

    http://www.perfumerflavorist.com/ if you want sterile but real industry news, and there are plenty of more resources.

    Here's one to chew on: Global fragrance market to reach $15.6 billion by 2019. Many more examples we can look up. You'll even see related articles that break it down by sector - male fragrance, youth-oriented, female...

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