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  1. #31

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    @andym72: Thank you for sharing your account. This is terrifyingly interesting.

    Personally, I don't think that much will change. Most mainstream fragrances are already chosen chosen 'by committee'; by seeing which sample meets a design brief the best by and using focus group response to gauge this. I think AI will be more of a tool to suggest what notes can be combined to create a successful scent / one that meets the brief, with a nose tweaking it afterwards if required.

    I don't think niche will be affected by this since there's no way that this tech won't be licensed for use by 'the big boys' only.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cook.bot View Post
    At ground level it's often hard to tell the difference between "mere happenstance" and "stroke of genius", no?

    Love Duchamp. That is all.

  2. #32
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by andym72 View Post
    And actually, you couldn't be more wrong with saying "AI is as good as the programmer". AI is only as good as the exemplar set that you train it with. Watson strictly speaking is an example of "machine learning" which is a very specific type of AI. To start with, it knows nothing and is useless. You have to feed it with a massive data set of examples that it can learn from.
    Exactly. The project I am working on right now is doing something similar with...well let's just say that this thread touches on some of the players involved (not in perfume). And Andy is dead on. It's all about the data, how you get it, how good it is, sample size, etc.
    Currently wearing: Sel Marin by Heeley

  3. #33

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Singularious View Post
    Exactly. The project I am working on right now is doing something similar with...well let's just say that this thread touches on some of the players involved (not in perfume). And Andy is dead on. It's all about the data, how you get it, how good it is, sample size, etc.
    As an example of bad data... Amazon recently built, and then junked, an AI system that would do an initial screening of candidate employee CVs.

    What they found was it was screening out CVs from Women that clearly were better suited to the job than Men it was letting through.

    This got reported in the press as "Amazon decommissions sexist AI".

    When they looked into why it was doing this, it turned out over 90% of the CVs in the example data set were from Men. So the AI had learnt (or coldly deduced, if you will) that Men are 9 times more suitable for a job at Amazon than Women
    Currently wearing: HiM by Hanae Mori

  4. #34
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Thanks for the info. Did not know about the Chef Watson and his recipe book. More recipes for us to discuss in "What are you cooking" thread.
    I still assert that AI is as good as a programmer.
    To do a good AI project you need a big data set. Which is getting trivial these days.
    Then it has to be normalized and corrected for bias.
    Who does that - a good programmer (now maybe in big companies they have fancy titles like data scientist but she is just a good programmer writing Matlab/R/TF scripts). We are in the era of big data and as data set gets asymptotically bigger most of these issues go away anyways.
    Then the right training has to be framed. The feature set defined (or extracted) and the right AI model chosen (SVM, DNN etc.). All of this is done by a programmer.

    Quote Originally Posted by andym72 View Post
    Well I actually work at IBM, and I've known that this was coming for 4 and half years and couldn't say anything because it was confidential!

    Back in Spring 2014 IBM Research launched a Proof of Concept at South By Southwest that was called Chef Watson:

    https://www.theverge.com/2014/3/9/54...learns-to-cook

    This system had been fed not just recipies, but what can only be called "molecular gastronomy" information as well - what compounds in common foodstuffs give the flavours and textures, and how certain cooking techniques modify those compounds.

    https://www.bonappetit.com/entertain...f-watson-works

    The recipes Chef Watson initially came up with were then cooked and tested by Institute of Culinary Education teaching chefs, who then fed back to the Watson AI whether the taste and texture of the recipes were good or gross. It took 2 years of this iterative training before IBM and ICE were confident of launching Chef Watson in public.

    There is a Chef Watson recipe book, that has some seriously wild and wacky and dare I say it innovative recipes. The most well reported one was the Austrian Chocolate Burrito! So I don't have any reservations about this technology coming up with boring, "me too" suggestions.

    When Chef Watson was announced, I got in contact with the team behind it and suggested that if they were looking to commercialise this tech, a good place to start would be the Perfume industry. And when they answered me, they basically said "Great minds think alike, we thought of that already and we are already working with a company in the Perfume industry". Of course, they didn't tell me it was Symrise. And obviously, it was commercially sensitive info so I have had to keep it to myself for 4 years!

    I will expect that Symrise have been formulating and testing the suggestions coming from Philyra for years, and feeding back into the AI algorithm so it can learn when it has come up with something that smells divine, verses something that smells like a dumpster. What is actually happening in this process is you are instilling the AI with some of the creativity of the human perfumer. But the creativity originates with the humans.

    And actually, you couldn't be more wrong with saying "AI is as good as the programmer". AI is only as good as the exemplar set that you train it with. Watson strictly speaking is an example of "machine learning" which is a very specific type of AI. To start with, it knows nothing and is useless. You have to feed it with a massive data set of examples that it can learn from.
    Beauty needs no morality or righteousness.
    It, like nature, does not give a shit

  5. #35

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser

    Quote Originally Posted by Cook.bot View Post
    Great. I can hardly wait to smell Avocado Toast eau de toilette at Anthropologie.
    Just quoting this because this is 10/10 wittiness lol. Fucking gold
    Don't stank.

  6. #36
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    I think we are all basically saying the same thing.

    But my question is...are sales the sole determinant for what is created to be saleable? At what point is the perfume data "breathing it's own exhaust fined"?

    I guess that's where the perfumer comes in.

    It is babe Watson, afterall. ��
    Currently wearing: Sel Marin by Heeley

  7. #37

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by epapsiou View Post
    I disagree.
    Well fine. You just stick with your notion that there's a single star programmer in the world who could make something like this work, and anybody else hasn't got a hope in hell.

    But I'm telling you the team (not a single programmer) at IBM that built Philyra are the same team that built Chef Watson, using the same technology and methodology.

    And Chef Watson has been out in the public eye for 4 years and has been demonstrated to work. That team has proven that the AI they created can come up with innovative suggestions. And that's just it, they are suggestions, not the finished article. Chef Watsons recipes and Philyra's formulas go on to be tweaked by humans.

    Asked to place a bet on a notional single star programmer, verses a team of programmers (and data scientists, and subject matter experts, all working together) that have a proven track record? I know where my bet is going.
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  8. #38

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Singularious View Post
    I think we are all basically saying the same thing.

    But my question is...are sales the sole determinant for what is created to be saleable? At what point is the perfume data "breathing it's own exhaust fined"?

    I guess that's where the perfumer comes in.
    Yeah, having Sales Numbers as the arbiter of taste does seem to be a bit dangerous to me. The size of a marketing campaign budget could easily skew that.

    Although it don't care how much Johnny Depp is getting paid, I still think Sauvage is bilge water...
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  9. #39
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    The Amazon example you gave is a perfect example of bad programmers and big team.
    A bias in CV data set was not identified. A trivial bias at that. There are urban legends and myths on these biases that everyone knows (or should know which was not the case at Amazon) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5o3C...d-consequences

    I don't think a single star programmer is what I said. I just said you need good programmers and there are not too many of them in this field.

    Quote Originally Posted by andym72 View Post
    Well fine. You just stick with your notion that there's a single star programmer in the world who could make something like this work, and anybody else hasn't got a hope in hell.

    But I'm telling you the team (not a single programmer) at IBM that built Philyra are the same team that built Chef Watson, using the same technology and methodology.

    And Chef Watson has been out in the public eye for 4 years and has been demonstrated to work. That team has proven that the AI they created can come up with innovative suggestions. And that's just it, they are suggestions, not the finished article. Chef Watsons recipes and Philyra's formulas go on to be tweaked by humans.

    Asked to place a bet on a notional single star programmer, verses a team of programmers (and data scientists, and subject matter experts, all working together) that have a proven track record? I know where my bet is going.
    Beauty needs no morality or righteousness.
    It, like nature, does not give a shit

  10. #40

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by andym72 View Post
    As an example of bad data... Amazon recently built, and then junked, an AI system that would do an initial screening of candidate employee CVs.

    What they found was it was screening out CVs from Women that clearly were better suited to the job than Men it was letting through.

    This got reported in the press as "Amazon decommissions sexist AI".

    When they looked into why it was doing this, it turned out over 90% of the CVs in the example data set were from Men. So the AI had learnt (or coldly deduced, if you will) that Men are 9 times more suitable for a job at Amazon than Women
    So what is the real point of AI. Is it to remove the need for humans to make decisions? Or is it just to remove the responsibility of those decisions? "It wasn't us, it was the sexist machine. It's gone now. We unplugged it. So much easier than having to fire someone."

  11. #41
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Suspended View Post
    So what is the real point of AI. Is it to remove the need for humans to make decisions? Or is it just to remove the responsibility of those decisions? "It wasn't us, it was the sexist machine. It's gone now. We unplugged it. So much easier than having to fire someone."
    The point of AI is the same as a hammer. You might...

    1. Aid a person in building something
    2. Aid a person in tearing something down
    3. Murder a man

    The difference, eventually, will be when sentience other than our own destroys us. It will either be AI or alien life. We are proving that we're too stupid to handle either in a way that is self-preserving.

    1. Stop sending signals into space. Don't test the Dark Forest Theory.
    2. Stop racing to be the first to artificial sentience without planning for contingencies that are beyond our comprehension.
    Currently wearing: Sel Marin by Heeley

  12. #42

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Singularious View Post
    The point of AI is the same as a hammer. You might...

    1. Aid a person in building something
    2. Aid a person in tearing something down
    3. Murder a man

    The difference, eventually, will be when sentience other than our own destroys us. It will either be AI or alien life. We are proving that we're too stupid to handle either in a way that is self-preserving.

    1. Stop sending signals into space. Don't test the Dark Forest Theory.
    2. Stop racing to be the first to artificial sentience without planning for contingencies that are beyond our comprehension.
    Well, that filled me full of hope for humanity.

  13. #43

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    This thread has gone from the topic of AI creating perfume to mass destruction pretty fast...


  14. #44
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Singularious View Post
    ..
    The difference, eventually, will be when sentience other than our own destroys us. It will either be AI or alien life. We are proving that we're too stupid to handle either in a way that is self-preserving.
    ...
    .
    I don't think we will have to wait for AI or Aliens to destroy us. We are doing a good job of it.
    Beauty needs no morality or righteousness.
    It, like nature, does not give a shit

  15. #45

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Nastka View Post
    This thread has gone from the topic of AI creating perfume to mass destruction pretty fast...

    Hasn't it just. Perhaps it's an omen.

  16. #46
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by epapsiou View Post
    I don't think we will have to wait for AI or Aliens to destroy us. We are doing a good job of it.
    We have proven that we *can* do a good job of self-correction in long play situations, but when that course is accelerated, it can become problematic. My concern is that by the time we realize there is an issue with the above two threats, the same impetus to work together in past crises won't allow for the time to solve the problem.

    I believe most of our planetary problems are solvable, if not immenently, but those two are outliers. I think we have evolved logistically and scientifically FAR faster than we have socially and emotionally, and that's a problem. I think it is further evidenced by our continued push for more math and science at the expense of emotional well being, and interpersonal/group understanding. Just my perception.
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  17. #47
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Nastka View Post
    This thread has gone from the topic of AI creating perfume to mass destruction pretty fast...

    Sorry! I haven't helped!

    If AI can create something as nice as this Terre that I'm wearing today, then I'm all ears...noses? Lol.
    Currently wearing: Sel Marin by Heeley

  18. #48
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

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  19. #49

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    shuddering at the thought that he taught his AI to make original rap songs by submitting it Kanye west lyrics.
    Don't stank.

  20. #50
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by wood&leather View Post
    shuddering at the thought that he taught his AI to make original rap songs by submitting it Kanye west lyrics.
    :-)
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  21. #51
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by wood&leather View Post
    shuddering at the thought that he taught his AI to make original rap songs by submitting it Kanye west lyrics.
    Hehe. Posts like these beg for a points system.
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  22. #52

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Singularious View Post
    Hehe. Posts like these beg for a points system.
    Hear hear!

  23. #53

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Suspended View Post
    So what is the real point of AI. Is it to remove the need for humans to make decisions? Or is it just to remove the responsibility of those decisions? "It wasn't us, it was the sexist machine. It's gone now. We unplugged it. So much easier than having to fire someone."
    Who is responsible, indeed who is LIABLE, for a bad outcome that came from a decision made by an AI, is something society is going to have to work out before we start using these systems everywhere.

    For instance, autonomous cars. If an autonomous car realises it’s about to be involved in an unavoidable accident that will injure or even kill, what judgement calls should it make about where to try and steer?

    Driverless cars: Who should die in a crash? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45991093
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  24. #54
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Old technology. Montale uses one way better, capable of creating a fragrance/minute.

  25. #55

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    As Singularious touched on with AI it just seems to be a race between teams to see who can build a road off a cliff fastest. I don’t think there’s a positive outcome for the human species here considering our track record of developing something just because we can.
    Why are the AI guys doing it? For the glory.
    Why do governments allow it? To gain a military advantage.
    AlphaGo. S’all im saying.

    The order is bows and arrows, gunpowder. atomic weapons, Round-Up, Sauvage, AlphaGo and finally the singularity. Then back to robotic bows and arrows.

    Answer. Pull the plug on developing AI.

  26. #56

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Beck View Post
    Old technology. Montale uses one way better, capable of creating a fragrance/minute.
    They're investing heavily so they can bring that time down to 45secs. Hednic can't wait.

  27. #57
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbouti View Post
    who can build a road off a cliff fastest.
    Quote Originally Posted by andym72 View Post
    Driverless cars: Who should die in a crash? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45991093
    " 'Never in the history of humanity have we allowed a machine to autonomously decide who should live and who should die, in a fraction of a second, without real-time supervision. We are going to cross that bridge any time now,' the team said in its analysis."

    This thread is depressing the hell out of me.

  28. #58

    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Cook.bot View Post
    " 'Never in the history of humanity have we allowed a machine to autonomously decide who should live and who should die, in a fraction of a second, without real-time supervision. We are going to cross that bridge any time now,' the team said in its analysis."

    This thread is depressing the hell out of me.
    I'm with you.

    Why do these people think we want to relinquish so much of what makes us human? We can surely resist. Keep AI for factory work.

  29. #59
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by Starblind View Post
    Many beautiful scents have been created through accident and luck and randomness (and minus much love, care, and passion).
    Quote Originally Posted by freewheelingvagabond View Post
    Is this an opinion or a fact?
    Sorry, that example (and an example doesn't prove any point ....) is invalid.
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  30. #60
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    Default Re: Watson may replace Nagel and Wasser (Welcome to Machine)

    Quote Originally Posted by freewheelingvagabond View Post
    Sorry, that example (and an example doesn't prove any point ....) is invalid.
    Um, it wasn't meant to. It's an entirely differently-focused article about AI.

    If you're still dying for "examples," from what I have read, Shalimar, Sauvage, and the original Dioressence were all "happy accidents." Of the indie perfumers I have been lucky enough to speak to, a few have also admitted that some of their favorite frags were created while, as one of them put it, "I was just fooling around."

    I have no idea why this entire topic is being turned into some sort of antagonistic argument. My original statement still stands: I simply do not care who or what makes a scent (or a piece of music or clothing or furniture or architecture, etc.) or how much effort or training is required to produce the end result, as long as it is beautiful.

    If the gorgeous fragrance I am wearing today were developed by committee or by a computer program or by a master perfumer, it would make no difference to me. I would simply enjoy the end result. This is merely my own attitude. You are quite free to adopt another.
    Currently wearing: 1000 by Jean Patou




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