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  1. #1
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    Default Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    From an investment [ or gambling] perspective are there fragrances sold today that you believe will be worth more 5 years from now?
    Is anyone buying two FB using one, saving the other for resale down the road?

    Sport & curiosity.......
    Currently wearing: Red Tobacco by Mancera

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    First formulations of fragrances are always a wanted fragrance, it’s hard to tell what will be discontinued with modern. I’m not interested in reselling fragrances for a profit because eventually certain fragrances come down in price when no one wants to pay triple the cost. There are a few gems out there that sadly have been discontinued, but imo not worth more than their retail cost it’s all about the money after that and who will pay who that amount.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Some will rise in value due to reformulation or discontinuation, but nothing is guaranteed. Speculating on future value is too risky. Of the thousands of bottles I own, most can be bought now for less than what I originally paid, not more.

    I'd only recommend buying things you like to wear, and consider it a bonus if they become worth more than what you paid.
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  4. #4

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Quote Originally Posted by newatthis66 View Post
    From an investment [ or gambling] perspective are there fragrances sold today that you believe will be worth more 5 years from now?
    Is anyone buying two FB using one, saving the other for resale down the road?

    Sport & curiosity.......
    I'm not. Never even crossed my mind, though I wish I'd bought back ups of all my favourites over the years that are extinct or lost their original formulation.
    That would have been a good investment.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Perhaps some of the limited edition Clive Christians no longer sold today or some of the ones sold in limited quantity in crystal that I own might increase in value, but don't know for sure. Have no plans for selling them anyway.
    Remember that while it is perfectly acceptable to criticize the content of a post - criticizing the poster is not.
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  6. #6

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    It seems like the rare "unicorn" batches of some Creeds command a lot of money on places like eBay.

    Especially Aventus (duh) but also Green Irish Tweed, Royal Oud, and so on

    The prices of 2010-2014 Aventus are straight up ridiculous. And I've seen 2010-2011 Royal Oud batches going for twice what they sold at retail.

  7. #7

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    IMO the best returns in terms of investment are with mass appeal designer houses with universal brand recognition. Something that's not selling well in department stores, and overstock has been dumped into discounters and grey market in large quantities until it stock runs dry. Not niche and not something that was designed to sell small quantities at an already exorbitant price, unless it's a cult classic. Recent example - Clinique Chemistry. Just about 4 months ago local discounters in my area were flooded with overstock that nobody wanted and dozens of 100 ml could be founded in discount outlets for as little as $10 a bottle. At the same time all regular retail chain stores were running out of stock. I knew I should have bought a few but I don't gamble and I don't do ebay. This stuff is now gone and sells on ebay for around $150 - $200 per bottle.

    That's not to say that it's a great fragrance - I find it a rather middle of the road throwaway quintessential 90's ditty that's more appropriate for workout than impressing anyone, but it has brand name recognition and nostalgia working in its favour. Kinda like some DJ-only promo 12" vinyl remixes of Madonna, Cher or Brittney Spears - utter crap for home listening and personal enjoyment, but highly valuable for completists and collectors just because of name and brand, which is guaranteed to drive the prices up long term. Or one of those baseball card things or Star Wars happy meal figurines - never understood that.

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Quote Originally Posted by strifeknot View Post
    Some will rise in value due to reformulation or discontinuation, but nothing is guaranteed. Speculating on future value is too risky. Of the thousands of bottles I own, most can be bought now for less than what I originally paid, not more.

    I'd only recommend buying things you like to wear, and consider it a bonus if they become worth more than what you paid.
    I agree with this statement, because buying up fragrances in hopes of controlling the market on them when discontinued is not just a fool's errand if you decide to "invest" in the wrong one, but will also automatically put you on the shit list of every vintage or artisanal perfume lover that wants to have long-term access to their discontinued or limited-edition favorites, knowing they have YOU to compete against because they want to wear/enjoy the perfume, not hoard 20 bottles of it hoping to flip it like real estate for 6x the original asking price.

    Fleecers, flippers, gougers, scalpers and sharks are often names given to folks who do this regardless of the product in question. If you plan on being one of them, your best bet is not to socialize with your intended targets, although it's a little late for that considering you're here asking us about it.
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  9. #9

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    The "all-time greats" are ones likely to go up (seems to be what happens in all collectibles markets), but they are a bit pricey now, so unless you get a great deal there is some risk of price stagnation (and you might break the bottle!). Some ideas: Macassar, Patou Pour Homme, and Egoiste Cologne Concentree.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Zealot, you mistakenly assumed that I am personally interested in:

    Fleecers, flippers, gougers, scalpers and sharks are often names given to folks who do this regardless of the product in question. If you plan on being one of them, your best bet is not to socialize with your intended targets, although it's a little late for that considering you're here asking us about it.

    Being new to basenotes, and appreciating the complexity of becoming a collector of fragrances as I stated "Sport & Curiosity" wondering if it even existed. I have neither the time or the interest let alone the knowledge to become a "trader" in this newly discovered hobby of not only fragrances but the beauty of some of the bottles........ you are mistaken


    Currently wearing: Red Tobacco by Mancera

  11. #11

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Quote Originally Posted by newatthis66 View Post
    Zealot, you mistakenly assumed that I am personally interested in:

    Fleecers, flippers, gougers, scalpers and sharks are often names given to folks who do this regardless of the product in question. If you plan on being one of them, your best bet is not to socialize with your intended targets, although it's a little late for that considering you're here asking us about it.

    Being new to basenotes, and appreciating the complexity of becoming a collector of fragrances as I stated "Sport & Curiosity" wondering if it even existed. I have neither the time or the interest let alone the knowledge to become a "trader" in this newly discovered hobby of not only fragrances but the beauty of some of the bottles........ you are mistaken


    It's really hard to tell but if you don't want to go for the "big buck" items, look for vintage that is still selling for reasonable prices, such as Jacomo de Jacomo, perhaps a Lagerfeld, Quorum, etc., and for recent, look for limited edition flankers that have good reviews and more interesting notes.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Quote Originally Posted by maksidrom View Post
    IMO the best returns in terms of investment are with mass appeal designer houses with universal brand recognition. Something that's not selling well in department stores, and overstock has been dumped into discounters and grey market in large quantities until it stock runs dry. Not niche and not something that was designed to sell small quantities at an already exorbitant price, unless it's a cult classic. Recent example - Clinique Chemistry. Just about 4 months ago local discounters in my area were flooded with overstock that nobody wanted and dozens of 100 ml could be founded in discount outlets for as little as $10 a bottle. At the same time all regular retail chain stores were running out of stock. I knew I should have bought a few but I don't gamble and I don't do ebay. This stuff is now gone and sells on ebay for around $150 - $200 per bottle.

    That's not to say that it's a great fragrance - I find it a rather middle of the road throwaway quintessential 90's ditty that's more appropriate for workout than impressing anyone, but it has brand name recognition and nostalgia working in its favour. Kinda like some DJ-only promo 12" vinyl remixes of Madonna, Cher or Brittney Spears - utter crap for home listening and personal enjoyment, but highly valuable for completists and collectors just because of name and brand, which is guaranteed to drive the prices up long term. Or one of those baseball card things or Star Wars happy meal figurines - never understood that.
    I blind bought this on clearance at Ulta speak of the devil. I agree that it's not a piece of art. I'd actually part with my bottle for waaaaay less than $200 considering I paid $20, if someone came out of the blue saying they loved it and missed it so very much, but I doubt that's the case with this one. It'll just be a little seldom-used oddball "museum piece" now that I know I can't replace it.

    Quote Originally Posted by newatthis66 View Post
    Zealot, you mistakenly assumed that I am personally interested in:

    Fleecers, flippers, gougers, scalpers and sharks are often names given to folks who do this regardless of the product in question. If you plan on being one of them, your best bet is not to socialize with your intended targets, although it's a little late for that considering you're here asking us about it.

    Being new to basenotes, and appreciating the complexity of becoming a collector of fragrances as I stated "Sport & Curiosity" wondering if it even existed. I have neither the time or the interest let alone the knowledge to become a "trader" in this newly discovered hobby of not only fragrances but the beauty of some of the bottles........ you are mistaken


    Apologies for mistaken intent.

    You'd be surprised how many boldface people storm in here and ask what you asked with the intent to make some fast cash, and it does get irksome, like we'd willing help someone rip us off here.

    If you want a serious answer, now that I know what you mean, I'd say any lesser-known fragrance from a popular house that seems to have languished a while without much presence in stores is likely to be axed and become the next "unicorn", with Rive Gauche Pour Homme being a great example. It's a hobbyist favorite but hasn't been pushed by YSL for years, and was finally killed off. Prices suddenly shot through the roof because all the fragheads who loved it were staring down oblivion, and the "traders" as you put it, had the "investment capital" to clean out discounters and quickly fix the price.
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  13. #13
    Basenotes Junkie slpfrsly's Avatar
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    I didn't get the sense this was fishing for investment tips, but can understand that such a topic will get a rise, understandably. There are surely readers of this who will use suggestions to do this if they weren't aware of what to buy already.

    I'd say the obvious place to start is by looking at what sells for much more than it typically (not originally) sold for when in production. So...

    1. Reformulations and batch codes of existing perfumes. This is highly variable in my opinion, and a fool's world to get in to. There is no exact science to this yet buyers spend their money as if it is so. Whether it's reduced performance or the absence/presence of certain notes in the current batch, people are willing to pay more to A LOT more for a different version of a still-in-production scent. Look at the typical guilty parties here, with the big houses owned by one large umbrella company as being guilty of this, but clearly niche stuff like Aventus qualifies as well.

    2. Rare and limited edition. Alluded to already, but for obvious reasons, scarcity could easily create a bidding war, particularly for collectors, irrespective of the perfume inside. If something is limited in number by not by design, then I think this is a safer bet than deiberately 'exclusive' perfumes, which are unlikely to sell for much more than they originally sold for. A limited run line from a designer, or boutique niche seller, for instance. But for something artisanal, like Slumberhouse? Scarcity as a result of the process, rather than the marketability, is a surer way of ensuring prices go up and up. But they'll have a ceiling, for sure - the price is mostly dictated by the community. If interest wanes, prices will drop. Again, variable and risky and although sensible investments that are unlikely to lose you money, I don't see how they will make loads, either.

    3. Discontinuations. The obvious one. Most things stop being made eventually. There is too much to say about this to do it justice. No hard surefire rules as to what will be popular when discontinued, and what won't. My instinct is that mass appealing, but not generic, are what receive a lot of love. Something that transcends the era it was made in enough for it to be relevant and not out of place in the modern world. More likely to be designer fragrances that demonstrate perfumery before designers started hiring noses with a...nose...for the bottom line and the focus group, more than anything else. Ones that are slow burners within the fragcomm and generally receive universal praise, but are not bought in huge numbers and therefore don't last too long in production, less than a decade, are decent bets.

    4. A change of taste and fashion/style. Fashion and style is cyclical. Fragrance is no different. Even among enthusiasts, we're prone to being led by others. Whether its the companies themselves pushing certain notes - like oud in recent years, or powdery iris/violent scents for men - or society creating certain conditions that influences buying behaviour. .For instance, I wonder if masculine fragrances are on the rise in this increasingly genderless world we live in - I think maybe so. But also, the general trend/fashion of wearing erfume in itself. The 90s freshies were a reaction to the glamorous, heavy 80s in nearly every sense. We're now living in hipsterdom times - which is everthing is plucked from the past, reworked for the modern world, and there are no more hard lines of definition, in anything. Many companies ban fragrance - many jobs are unsuitable for it. Climate change will effect it. As will economic change and the likely reduction in living standards of the middle classes. But more simply a change in tastes for scents/notes of yesteryear - are we in an era of fougeres again? Rive Gauche is receiving much love, and TF has brought out several fougeres. So, as a knock on effect, will all similar scents go up in price? Has Molinard's Lavande gone up in price as a result of TF releasing Lavendar Extreme? Quite possibly, I would have thought. Tastes are indiidually decided, but also communally, and economically through the houses/businesses themselves. You can't really predict this, but you can prepare for it.
    Currently wearing: Aventus by Creed

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Quote Originally Posted by strifeknot View Post
    I'd only recommend buying things you like to wear, and consider it a bonus if they become worth more than what you paid.
    Well said.
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  15. #15
    Basenotes Junkie oudaddict's Avatar
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Some naturals like wild oud oil and Mysore sandalwood are likely to go up in price. Dior Homme Parfum price has almost doubled in the space of two years. Anything Areej le Dore and Bortnikoff makes is going up in price, especially if contains natural musk. Mousse Illuminée will surely inflate if it gets discontinued. Creed will definitely increase their prices because they can. I don't expect Dior and Chanel to get any cheaper.

    Ultimately, it's all speculation. But think about supply and demand, limited editions, first batches etc.

    I'm not interested in saving bottles for reselling as an investment, I do have some backups of frags that I love because I want to use them in the future in case of reformulation or discontinuation. But there are so many great new fragrances and a huge choice of diversity on the market these days thanks to the Internet, it does not bother me too much. I'm not a big fan of hoarding or colecting because I buy a fragrance ultimately for me to enjoy it not to sit on a shelf gathering dust for years on end.

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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    One example would be Creed bottles. Certain batches of certain bottles continue to lead to eventual premiums.
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  17. #17
    Basenotes Institution badarun's Avatar
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Creed, Roja Dove, Puredistance, Guerlain (the soon to get discontinued fragrances and limited edition bottles).

    Pure ouds always fetch a good return.
    Currently wearing: Cedrat Boise by Mancera

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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Quote Originally Posted by badarun View Post
    Creed, Roja Dove, Puredistance, Guerlain (the soon to get discontinued fragrances and limited edition bottles).

    Pure ouds always fetch a good return.
    You know I bet if Guerlain ever decided to discontinue Spiritueuse Double Vanille and not regionally, it will get a nice premium. I could see that with Tonka Imperiale as well.
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  19. #19
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    There's no way to know. If anyone were to tell me that my dad's bottle of CHAPS was going to be worth a hundred bucks, you'd probably get laughed at.
    Also, it seems to me that the designer stuff may be hard to track down, it's value basically stay the same for the rare stuff. But the mall store fragrances, when they get discontinued, those prices get jump up pretty fast. Same goes for the Salon or drug store/department store only fragrances. Those, once discontinued, can go up pretty fast as well, I've noticed.
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  20. #20

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Quote Originally Posted by badarun View Post
    Creed, Roja Dove, Puredistance, Guerlain (the soon to get discontinued fragrances and limited edition bottles).

    Pure ouds always fetch a good return.
    If these were the equivalent of Picasso in the fine art world, I would agree, but I would not take the risk that this does not happen (considering how they can just crank out as much product as they want), at those retail prices levels. What I have seen lately on ebay is that at least some niche often sells for less than it used to, probably because there is just so much of it. Sure, something like the more popular Creeds are going to sell for more on ebay, but then you are going to pay more to get them in the first place! Where is the value in terms of "investement" in a "collectible" there? I fear a "bubble" type situation, but if you find some great deals on fragrances that are no longer available and are also pupular, such as first formulation Quorum, I doubt you will lose much if anything (if the worse case scenario occurs). However, I think that buying such a bottle and hating the fragrance isn't the way to go. If you like the scent AND there may be a sharp price rise over the next few years, then it makes sense to go for it, at reasonable prices (such as 100 ml vintage Quorum for around $20 or less), or a limited edition flanker that's being closed out at low prices and is part of a popular line (like Kouros or Habit Rouge).

  21. #21
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Well it's already obvious that discontinued fragrances only go up in value.. whether it's Patou or Playboy VIP Black. Cheap frags or expensive. Fragrances have already shown ove the course of time, they only go up in value.

    As to your other questions, I buy backup bottles on the simple principle that I love the fragrance, but many times, the back up become sales as I never get anywhere close to finishing the prior bottle. One thing that does grind my gears, is when our fellow BN'ers sell to US fragrance hobbyists, discontinued frags that they had back ups of - at high mark ups. I mean do it on Ebay jeeze, don't do it to other fragheads alike. Guys selling vintage La Nuit in the marketplace for $200+ a bottle is sickening to me, and even somewhat disrespectful to us. Us guys are mostly in it for the same reason, we love fragrances. Though this is a highly debatable topic, but to me it's just like price gouging during hurricane season, (a Florida thing) when you walk into a gas station or even a Walmart sometimes, when a hurricane is close to hitting and you find that bottled water has gone up in price from 69 cents each to $6 bucks each. In this case, since it's retail it has become illegal. I feel the same way with fragrances. I have never done this myself, but to a lesser extent - I have had A LOT of discontinued rare gems, but never, have I ever sold one individually at a very high mark up. I only sell in lots on Ebay, and I only trade here on BN. So in the lot listings, i will put that it's rare/discontinued, and same here on BN, just so that they know it goes for a higher amount. Come to think of it, I think I did it once for a vintage Givenchy Pi, on Ebay, and I felt like a criminal after I did it, and even offered to send the buyer multiple samples of various fragrances to which he declined.

    Sorry if I took the second part off topic at all, kind of got too into it.
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  22. #22

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Guerlain's Les Parisiens: Arsène Lupin Dandy/Voyou, Chamade pour Homme, Cologne du 68, l'Âme d'un Héros (Coriolan), Derby, Habit Rouge Dress Code, Lui, Mouchoir de Monsieur seem to be good investments!
    Last edited by Trauerkraut; 21st August 2019 at 04:57 AM.
    Currently wearing: Jaïpur Homme by Boucheron

  23. #23
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Speculative collecting is a rich person’s game. You have to have cash to lay out with no need for short-term returns; you need considerable temperature- and light-controlled space for long-term storage; you need time to do market research and to make your ads; and you need to be able to afford to lose all your money if your choices end up having no significant market value.

    If you can afford it and you love collecting for its own sake, great. But, strictly as an investment, there are countless better ways to plan for the future.

  24. #24
    Basenotes Junkie oudaddict's Avatar
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    I agree with the sentiments of The_Cologneist and it's not something that I would do myself but the analogy with water in the time of a natural disaster is incorrect. Fragrance is not an essential element for survival and nobody can force someone to buy something at a price they do want to pay for it. But like your dashboard statement says, "Where there's gold, there's a gold digger"!

  25. #25
    Basenotes Junkie Alonewithcologne's Avatar
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    If D&G The One EDP is neutered, then current and past bottles will skyrocket in price.

  26. #26

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    I purchased Aventus in the week it was launched in London

    I suppose with a crystal ball, it would have been a good idea to buy a backup and kept it unopened

  27. #27
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    The_cologneist, thank you I believe your analogy of water shortage in Florida and price gouging during hurricane season is a perfect example.
    Opportunist without scruples.
    The person changes it from a hobby to a business.
    As I mentioned in an earlier response, I am also becoming enamored with the beauty of the some of the bottles. May look at beginning a collection of empty frag bottles
    Last edited by newatthis66; 19th August 2019 at 12:51 PM.
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  28. #28
    Super Member Primatesinplaid's Avatar
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    I believe initial launch batches of Dior products will have a premium in the future, since they are one of the largest houses who openly admit to reformulations and the community seems to have serious anxiety about that very subject.

    Just curious if they (Dior) figured that out long ago and use it as a marketing tool to keep their brands image in high regard.
    After all, there is something to be said for people hunting down vintage batches and paying a premium on top, mentally it cements the image of “worth” associated with your brand.

  29. #29
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    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Go with first releases of critically acclaimed /cult favorites but not necessarily mass-appealing flankers. IMO they seem more likely to get discontinued earlier, creating a supply deficit that will push up prices. Example: Ralph Lauren Romance Silver tor Men is now trading for $300 on average.
    “...too many among us die at thirty and are buried at eighty.” - Robin Sharma

  30. #30

    Default Re: Crystal Ball----- Future value of a fragrance

    Quote Originally Posted by Diamondflame View Post
    Go with first releases of critically acclaimed /cult favorites but not necessarily mass-appealing flankers. IMO they seem more likely to get discontinued earlier, creating a supply deficit that will push up prices. Example: Ralph Lauren Romance Silver tor Men is now trading for $300 on average.
    It is not though, is it? Sure people are listing it for that price, but there are no takers. If you go and see what is actually sold none of it gets above $90. This is the problem with vintage scents is that anyone can say my bottle is worth $100-$300 to me, but if no one is willing to pay that then it is not worth that much.

    It reminds me of the many people I see on our own trading board. A guy right now has a vintage Chanel Antaeus up for $200; and he's had that up for well over a year now with no takers, and doubtfully there will be any takers in the future.




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    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 18th February 2011, 02:54 PM
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    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 15th February 2005, 06:41 PM

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Loving perfume on the Internet since 2000