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Thread: The Future

  1. #1
    Dependent BruceB's Avatar
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    Default The Future

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    Last edited by BruceB; 22nd April 2020 at 08:18 PM. Reason: Grammar

  2. #2

    Default Re: The Future

    If WW1, WW2, and more relevantly the Spanish Flu didn't effect perfumes in the long run neither will this.

  3. #3
    Dependent BruceB's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Future

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    Last edited by BruceB; 22nd April 2020 at 08:18 PM.

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    Default Re: The Future

    I don't see any change in the future.
    Remember that while it is perfectly acceptable to criticize the content of a post - criticizing the poster is not.
    Mean spirited, nasty, snide, sarcastic, hateful, and rude individuals on Basenotes don't warrant or deserve my or other Basenoters' acknowledgement or respect.

  5. #5
    Basenotes Institution badarun's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Future

    Prices of Creed, Tom Ford, Xerjoff, Clive Christian, Roja will not go up from now on. But they'll try to make our lives easier by keeping the same cost and selling half the volume of the fragrances so we can feel better.
    Currently wearing: Cedrat Boise by Mancera

  6. #6
    Super Member FragSyndrome's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Future

    I wear perfume for myself, not the people around me and I've been careful not to overdo it in the office. Since this whole COVID-19 thing went down, I'be been wearing more perfume than before since I don't have to worry about offending those around me.
    Currently wearing: Musk Khabib by Bortnikoff

  7. #7

    Default Re: The Future

    Quote Originally Posted by BruceB View Post
    Fair enough.
    But after those events perfumes were affected.
    ¿In which way do you think perfumes will be affected in the future?
    Best,
    BruceB
    I mean sure they were effected in the sense the artist behind them were effected, but that's like asking someone to predict surrealism or post modernism. Not possible.

  8. #8

    Default Re: The Future

    In think the real question here is, whats up with all the upside down question marks
    Quote Originally Posted by BruceB View Post
    ¿
    BruceB

  9. #9

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    Default Re: The Future

    The 2010s have seen huge increases in the price of luxury goods, in perfumes and elsewhere. Let's see if this continues after the covid recession.

    cacio

  10. #10
    Super Member Pallas Moncreiff's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Future

    Hah, the perfume-foolishness (its a compliment, folks!) and the query about inverted question-marks... BN always delivers.
    I've been so heart-sore, this is a most welcome diversion.

    BruceB, the future doesn't look so promising. When economies go down due to natural calamities, it is a domino effect.
    We are in global recession, and no cessation in sight unless pandemic looses its stranglehold.
    The reason also being Givaudan, IFF, L'Oreal, Estee Lauder, etc stock up on their essential oil harvests ahead of time.
    Fields and fields of Rosa damasena (future) crop-productions in Iran, Morocco and Turkey, Orange blossoms and geranium in Morocco and Egypt, Jasmin sambac in India, Pakistan, Egypt and France, etc, etc already are consigned to these perfume giants.
    Now if no one is working, and there is a literal ban on people gatherings any and everywhere... what do you think is going to happen? By the way, rose-petal harvest season usually starts in Turkey and Iran 3rd week of March. Usually women and children pick the petals in early morning hours because small hands don't damage the petals.
    In Iran, there is a stringent curfew on any group gatherings, dot.

    A lot of Aroma-chemicals come from fractionation of natural products.
    So, in current atmosphere, emphasis would be on crops and food cultivars, not on perfume essential oils.
    Few things:
    prices could escalate or
    they would decrease production until their farm-suppliers are back on track or
    stop production of stuff temporarily which rely heavily on such natural products.
    So, things that rely primarily on AC, probably will remain with no changes.
    Also, depends on when the labour force would be back full time in factories.

    So, at best, the future is very uncertain.

  11. #11

    Default Re: The Future

    Quote Originally Posted by cacio View Post
    The 2010s have seen huge increases in the price of luxury goods, in perfumes and elsewhere. Let's see if this continues after the covid recession.

    cacio
    This is true in entertainment also to some degree... Concerts... most professional sports.... etc.... The easy guess is that people are less well off so prices don't go up as much or go down, but in reality it seems that most companies want to be known as "prestige" and find they are making more money charging more for products. They will keep doing it until it no longer works....

  12. #12

    Default Re: The Future

    Instead of fragrances completely disappearing due to current or even future developments, personally guessing that fragrance industry, wearing habits, trends etc. will gradually adapt to the current and future societal, cultural, economic, financial etc. contexts, as it has already often happened before throughout history.

    The crucial physical/body oriented aspects of fragrance might be either limited or, on the contrary, intensified (almost as a natural reaction to the first possibility) but scents will not disappear completely and might still grow/expand both as an industry and as a luxury, status symbol, accessory-relating to this, the question is not so much if, rather how and when this will happen.
    Currently wearing: Marbert Homme by Marbert

  13. #13
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    Default Re: The Future

    Today's world of fragrances - I didn't abandon it, it abandoned me. My sentiment would be that the past decades of perfumery are much more satisfying and fulfilling.
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  14. #14

    Default Re: The Future

    A vaccine will be found and everything will be back to normal, i.e. mainly shoddy designer and vastly overpriced niche

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    Default Re: The Future

    Quote Originally Posted by FragSyndrome View Post
    I wear perfume for myself, not the people around me and I've been careful not to overdo it in the office. Since this whole COVID-19 thing went down, I'be been wearing more perfume than before since I don't have to worry about offending those around me.
    This. It's been great. And it's something to do.

  16. #16
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    Default Re: The Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Pallas Moncreiff View Post
    Hah, the perfume-foolishness (its a compliment, folks!) and the query about inverted question-marks... BN always delivers.
    I've been so heart-sore, this is a most welcome diversion.

    BruceB, the future doesn't look so promising. When economies go down due to natural calamities, it is a domino effect.
    We are in global recession, and no cessation in sight unless pandemic looses its stranglehold.
    The reason also being Givaudan, IFF, L'Oreal, Estee Lauder, etc stock up on their essential oil harvests ahead of time.
    Fields and fields of Rosa damasena (future) crop-productions in Iran, Morocco and Turkey, Orange blossoms and geranium in Morocco and Egypt, Jasmin sambac in India, Pakistan, Egypt and France, etc, etc already are consigned to these perfume giants.
    Now if no one is working, and there is a literal ban on people gatherings any and everywhere... what do you think is going to happen? By the way, rose-petal harvest season usually starts in Turkey and Iran 3rd week of March. Usually women and children pick the petals in early morning hours because small hands don't damage the petals.
    In Iran, there is a stringent curfew on any group gatherings, dot.

    A lot of Aroma-chemicals come from fractionation of natural products.
    So, in current atmosphere, emphasis would be on crops and food cultivars, not on perfume essential oils.
    Few things:
    prices could escalate or
    they would decrease production until their farm-suppliers are back on track or
    stop production of stuff temporarily which rely heavily on such natural products.
    So, things that rely primarily on AC, probably will remain with no changes.
    Also, depends on when the labour force would be back full time in factories.

    So, at best, the future is very uncertain.
    Really good points in there. Having said that, from my own view personally I don't see a huge amount of change over the next few years.

    I guess I should chunk it down to give context.

    1) Luxe and Ultra Luxe price point and postioning - least affected. The simple reality here is that yes, some countries will end up with horrific unemployment rates and a lot of people are going to have a rough time of it, but this doesn't change the fundamental dynamic of income inequality that has driven the outlandish sales of many of these marques. Almost anyone who is truly wealthy can weather the Corona storm. It also won't dent the governing concept of post-millenial "luxury" being tied to the perception of inherent brand value rather than quality of materiel and manufacture.

    2) Designer and "Accessible Niche" - somewhat affected. LVMH has already stopped perfume production from at least one factory in order to meet hand sanitiser demands for the French government. Supply won't exceed demand and the massive conglomerates behind the bulk of designer and niche perfumes will be able to weather the storm because they have ample cash reserves. Worst case scenario, on a large scale we lose one year's worth of harvests of raw materials. There would be a short term price hike on material cost during the market resurge that several houses would probably also try to tie to a new major release (Chanel's new masculine?) in order to justify the mark up.

    3) Independents and artisan perfumers... these guys I worry about. They're much more susceptible to a short term hit of sales because most of these producers are newer to the market and don't necessarily have a big war chest to fall back on. The double edge sword of not being mass produced is that the volume and cash flow simply isn't there. Using a higher percentage of naturals (or only naturals) means that the loss of one year's harvest and not being cosy with IFF, Givaudan or Firmenich means they are far, far more exposed to supply shortages and price increases.

    If you're cashed up and didn't feel compelled to buy from an indie perfumer that you appreciated before now, then the current climate should definitely motivate you to do so.
    “Always forgive your enemies - nothing annoys them so much.” - Oscar Wilde
    Currently wearing: Tuscan Leather by Tom Ford

  17. #17
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    Default Re: The Future

    If the recession talk is true, it depends on how long. In the U.S., there seems to be a recession every 15 to 20 years. Most recently, the bank and mortgage bust of the mid 00 to late 00's. I don't know if that impacted the perfume world negatively. It may have slowed business for a brief couple of years.
    "Ducks eat for free at Subway."

  18. #18
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    Default Re: The Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Joe View Post
    In think the real question here is, whats up with all the upside down question marks
    The OP is from Argentina, and in Spanish you put the question marks at the beginning and the end of the question. Probably he got confused, as it's not required in English.

  19. #19
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    Default Re: The Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaern View Post
    A vaccine will be found and everything will be back to normal, i.e. mainly shoddy designer and vastly overpriced niche
    Just waiting for this to happen sooner than later.

  20. #20
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    Default Re: The Future

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    Last edited by BruceB; 22nd April 2020 at 08:17 PM.

  21. #21
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    Default Re: The Future

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    Last edited by BruceB; 22nd April 2020 at 08:17 PM.

  22. #22
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    Default Re: The Future

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    Last edited by BruceB; 22nd April 2020 at 08:17 PM.

  23. #23
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    Default Re: The Future

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    Last edited by BruceB; 22nd April 2020 at 08:17 PM.

  24. #24
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    Default Re: The Future

    I’ll keep buying perfume as long as there are things worth buying.
    "I felt something so intense, I could only express it in a perfume." - Jacques Guerlain
    Currently wearing: Sensations by Jil Sander

  25. #25
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    Default Re: The Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Reventon View Post
    Really good points in there. Having said that, from my own view personally I don't see a huge amount of change over the next few years.

    I guess I should chunk it down to give context.

    1) Luxe and Ultra Luxe price point and postioning - least affected. The simple reality here is that yes, some countries will end up with horrific unemployment rates and a lot of people are going to have a rough time of it, but this doesn't change the fundamental dynamic of income inequality that has driven the outlandish sales of many of these marques. Almost anyone who is truly wealthy can weather the Corona storm. It also won't dent the governing concept of post-millenial "luxury" being tied to the perception of inherent brand value rather than quality of materiel and manufacture.

    2) Designer and "Accessible Niche" - somewhat affected. LVMH has already stopped perfume production from at least one factory in order to meet hand sanitiser demands for the French government. Supply won't exceed demand and the massive conglomerates behind the bulk of designer and niche perfumes will be able to weather the storm because they have ample cash reserves. Worst case scenario, on a large scale we lose one year's worth of harvests of raw materials. There would be a short term price hike on material cost during the market resurge that several houses would probably also try to tie to a new major release (Chanel's new masculine?) in order to justify the mark up.

    3) Independents and artisan perfumers... these guys I worry about. They're much more susceptible to a short term hit of sales because most of these producers are newer to the market and don't necessarily have a big war chest to fall back on. The double edge sword of not being mass produced is that the volume and cash flow simply isn't there. Using a higher percentage of naturals (or only naturals) means that the loss of one year's harvest and not being cosy with IFF, Givaudan or Firmenich means they are far, far more exposed to supply shortages and price increases.

    If you're cashed up and didn't feel compelled to buy from an indie perfumer that you appreciated before now, then the current climate should definitely motivate you to do so.
    Agree. Item number 3 is in danger.
    Best!
    BruceB

  26. #26
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    Default Re: The Future

    Quote Originally Posted by tdem1961 View Post
    I’ll keep buying perfume as long as there are things worth buying.
    Yes!!!!

  27. #27
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    Default Re: The Future

    deleted
    Last edited by BruceB; 22nd April 2020 at 08:16 PM.

  28. #28

    Default Re: The Future

    Quote Originally Posted by techt View Post
    Just waiting for this to happen sooner than later.
    Probably 9-12 months.

    Death toll is pushing 600 in the last 24 hours over here so I'm with you

  29. #29
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    Default Re: The Future

    Increase in beast mode scents to ensure one can be smelled by others even with a 6 foot gap between you.


    Growth in the niche hand sanitizer market, with distilleries and perfume makers creating crossover products. Perfumes engineered to account for the effect of masks and PPE on one’s ability to smell them.
    1. No, never blind buy (I do, but do as I say, not as I do. I'm taking no responsibility for your fragrance gambling).
    2. Get them both. You're a Basenoter and you know you're going to end up purchasing them both eventually.
    3. Yes, it has been reformulated.
    4. Looking for a signature scent? You've come to the wrong place.

  30. #30
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    Default Re: The Future

    One day at a time...




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