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  1. #1

    Question How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Not to be all doom and gloom, but I'm curious to hear people's opinions. How do you think this pandemic and the resulting economic crisis will affect the fragrance industry in general?


    I read somewhere that around the time the 2008 crisis happened, there was a registered spike in the popularity of niche perfumes like Tom Ford suddenly got big and Le Labo and Creed...
    The explanation was that people could no longer afford big luxuries like holidays, so instead they opted in for expensive perfume instead.

    Now, I see a lot of niche perfumery boutiques closing down and I get a sense that many niche brands and shops are struggling to stay afloat. With department stores like Barney's closing, that must be quite a big hit for niche brands. How do you think the industry will look like in 3-5 years time?
    Currently wearing: Indigo by Baruti

  2. #2

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    These things are very hard to predict.

    But the entire global economy is going to see a massive contraction at least for this year, with Asian markets (one of the biggest for luxury goods) taking a big hit.

    I expect we'll see many houses fold or be sold, niche or otherwise. The luxury games of charging $300+ for a 50 ml bottle are probably going to wind down a bit, even if overall I think brands like Tom Ford and Creed will do well enough.

    We'll hopefully see some reinvestment in the mass-market with luxury taking a hit (during the last big recession, luxury was hit hard but the mass market was more stable).

  3. #3
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by TrevorSkywalker View Post
    Now, I see a lot of niche perfumery boutiques closing down and I get a sense that many niche brands and shops are struggling to stay afloat.
    I'm pretty confident that the ones I shop from will be just fine.
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brooks Otterlake View Post
    I expect we'll see many houses fold or be sold, niche or otherwise.
    This could be the case for a number of brands. For more established brands, I doubt there will be long term impact.

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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    I hope the houses can hold out, I have not put my hobby or collecting on hold because of this. I work retail and no one has put their entertainment on hold either, so I assume fragrance houses are still making sales just mostly online now.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Corona V pour Homme
    Currently wearing: Diaghilev by Roja Dove

  7. #7
    Super Member PartySnake's Avatar
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    In general, I expect much to stay the same; however, I'm certain that many new releases will be postponed.
    Currently wearing: Interlude Man by Amouage

  8. #8
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    This will be very interesting because the large manufacturers and distributors at the same time, can no longer meet the sales figures that they themselves expect.

    If practically all sales outlets have closed - no matter where in the world - no sales and therefore profit is possible.

    Some of the big players are stock-based ...!
    Some stocks will fall sharply!
    Maybe an opportunity for small money to buy shares of such companies!
    Then - as a shareholder - at the annual general meeting, to eat for free on excellent buffets!


    I don't want to talk about the much smaller fragrance producers, especially in the high price range!

    It will be difficult, very difficult - and some will go bankrupt.

    But the BRANDS will remain ... then bought from someone else.
    Something to translate: ... says the real important German cabaret artist Dieter Nuhr: "Und wenn nichts weiß, einfach mal die Fresse halten!"
    Currently wearing: Black Orchid by Tom Ford

  9. #9

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    I think all this enforced solitude will make us all
    question what is important and what isn't.

    Personally, I think mass consumerism will become a
    thing of the past and people will have learned to value
    what they have rather than what they don't have.We will all
    emerge from this as better people.

    The perfume industry will still be there but the very high end will
    take a massive hit maybe. Some companies have already begun to diversify and
    make products for use during the crisis - e.g. disinfectants, aprons etc.Miller
    Harris is making soaps for Age UK parcels for the elderly and vulnerable.
    A woman without perfume is like a flower without a scent.
    Currently wearing: Herbae by L'Occitane

  10. #10

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Chanel 19 will suffer

    it's just too close

  11. #11
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by kewart View Post
    I think all this enforced solitude will make us all
    question what is important and what isn't.

    Personally, I think mass consumerism will become a
    thing of the past and people will have learned to value
    what they have rather than what they don't have.We will all
    emerge from this as better people.
    I hope you're right, but I think a long period of isolation will be necessary to counteract short memories.

    There are already a few threads on this but useful to read them in combination.

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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by kewart View Post
    I think all this enforced solitude will make us all
    question what is important and what isn't.

    Personally, I think mass consumerism will become a
    thing of the past and people will have learned to value
    what they have rather than what they don't have.We will all
    emerge from this as better people.
    I do hope you are right, and that humanity goes through a reassessment about what really does and does not matter in their lives.

    While people may still want to be good to themselves, I know that I've put a hold on a few extravagant purchases I was considering before all this hit.
    Currently wearing: Potion by Dsquared2

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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by kewart View Post
    Personally, I think mass consumerism will become a
    thing of the past and people will have learned to value
    what they have rather than what they don't have.
    I have to admit, I am cynical.

  14. #14

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    I'm sure the smaller houses will suffer if not shutter completely. That's one reason why I ordered a sample set from January Scent Project last week. I wanted to support a small perfumer.
    Currently wearing: Mitzah by Christian Dior

  15. #15

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by ultravisitor View Post
    I'm sure the smaller houses will suffer if not shutter completely. That's one reason why I ordered a sample set from January Scent Project last week. I wanted to support a small perfumer.
    Why would the smaller companies suffer? If anything they're probably in the best circumstances. A company like January Scent Project no way they have huge overhead there's just not enough people buying their perfumes.

  16. #16
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    I think many of the niche and Indy perfumers will suffer and many will likely go out of business. I have a feeling with all of this and the aftermath that super luxury items will be pretty low on most peoples lists. The big designer brands will be ok though.

  17. #17

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by KBF1972 View Post
    I think many of the niche and Indy perfumers will suffer and many will likely go out of business. I have a feeling with all of this and the aftermath that super luxury items will be pretty low on most peoples lists. The big designer brands will be ok though.
    I just can't agree with that. Did you know that for the relevant time Joy by Jean Patou was the most expensive perfume around? Did you also know that Joy was created during the worst years of the great depression. Sure this could be the outlier and things go up in flame, but honestly that's more unreasonable to think.

  18. #18
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Temporary affects. Being able to purchase online might help soften the blow.
    <div class="bnsotd"><b>Currently wearing:</b> <a href="ID26148387.html"><img src="http://www.basenotes.net/photos/products/33/26148387-7393.jpg"> Carven L'Eau Intense by Carven</a></div>

  19. #19
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    I worry about the other side. The consumer.

    When this runs it's race will disposable income be the same for the many. I fear it will slow to recapture the many fragrances we have enjoyed to select the past few years as the volume purchases may make a nose dive until the main economy gets back on firm footing. I am not suggesting a long depressed economy but I am sure the many of the artisans whom pride themselves blending with natural ingredients may have to scale back a bit due to cost.

    I hope not. But nothing seems certain these days.

  20. #20

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by GoldWineMemories View Post
    A company like January Scent Project no way they have huge overhead there's just not enough people buying their perfumes.
    Exactly. When the economy was healthier, there was hardly many people buying those perfumes.

    Now there will be even fewer people buying them.
    Currently wearing: Mitzah by Christian Dior

  21. #21

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by ultravisitor View Post
    Exactly. When the economy was healthier, there was hardly many people buying those perfumes.

    Now there will be even fewer people buying them.
    I agree. That being said a company goes out of business because their overhead bankrupts them. A small indy company has basically no overhead. They're all online business. I wouldn't be surprised if most of them are run out of their house and their office is literally a room in their house turned into an office. They have the best chance of being around because they don't have to produce anything in order to sustain the business, and when things turn around they can get back at it.

  22. #22

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Maybe we will get more sillage --- say larger than 6 feet?


    a~~

  23. #23
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Way less consumers, massiv reduction of sales, bankruptcy. That will probably be the pattern.
    And I am not that confident that the big companies won’t get the hit.
    It will be a very difficult period the one that follows the end of Corona Hysteria.

  24. #24

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Apart from the very legitimate risks of reduction/limitations of business, on the other hand economic recovery can mean a surge of sales figures in the opposite direction.

    After the 2008-2009 recession, the subsequent economic recovery created almost out of nothing a new demand for niche, designer exclusives and/or artisan fragrances, especially in growing/merging economies. Therefore, while most fragrance companies might be (some heavily) affected short term, the few ones that will somehow survive the crisis might be strengthened in the middle and long term perspective.

    Besides, in a humorous note, the fragrances ensuring a 6 foot (or more) isolation/avoidance ratio through their performance and sillage might already be or become bestsellers even before the crisis and possible subsequent recession are over. Thus any company crafting and retailing their fragrances at beast mode projection levels might already be the hidden champions with an already existing competitive advantage.
    Including further bonus points if diversifying their business lines/directions/segments with industrial, medical etc. products heavily in demand nowadays (of course, under different names, brand identities, even distinct affiliated companies, thus not interfering with a certain image/marketing associated with perfume alone).
    Currently wearing: 1881 Amber by Cerruti

  25. #25
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaern View Post
    Chanel 19 will suffer

    it's just too close
    Underrated comment right here.

  26. #26

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by GoldWineMemories View Post
    I agree. That being said a company goes out of business because their overhead bankrupts them. A small indy company has basically no overhead. They're all online business. I wouldn't be surprised if most of them are run out of their house and their office is literally a room in their house turned into an office. They have the best chance of being around because they don't have to produce anything in order to sustain the business, and when things turn around they can get back at it.
    Best chance of being around? Better chance than a huge luxury brand like Dior, Hermes, or Louis Vuitton? I don't think so.
    Currently wearing: Mitzah by Christian Dior

  27. #27
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Loss of smell seems to be one of the side effects of this virus, wether it is temporary or not remains to be seen in each individual.

    I expect some people will not purchase fragrance anymore due to anosmia and some people will not have the disposable income.

    More people might overspray due to anosmia.

    We might not see high demand fragrances rise up in value in the same way as the past few years.

    I'm already seeing a softening in the watch auctions so far in 2020 so I think fragrance will go the same way.
    Currently wearing: Nobile by Gucci

  28. #28

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Quote Originally Posted by kewart View Post
    I think all this enforced solitude will make us all
    question what is important and what isn't.

    Personally, I think mass consumerism will become a
    thing of the past and people will have learned to value
    what they have rather than what they don't have.We will all
    emerge from this as better people.
    That's extremely optimistic.

    I reckon everything will quickly go back to normal, depending on how bad it gets/broke everybody will be.

    So far it doesn't even feel as if people take it all that seriously. I've seen a small group of lads carrying a football earlier and people talk about the dangers of 5G and vaccinations, when they're not out and about attacking engineers https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...s-conspiracies

  29. #29

    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    For the consumer things should be more affordable with fragrance houses forced to cut prices to compete for our money. The small companies (niche) will suffer the most as the big companies like Dior have the money to weather the storm. A lot of consumers been hit hard will have little money for luxury items so buying a fragrance will be far down on the list of essential items. Tough times ahead for most of us!
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  30. #30
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    Default Re: How do you think Corona and the crisis will affect the perfume industry?

    Impossible to know. But I reckon things will go back to being the same for the perfume industry.
    Seeking: Bottles/decants : of Pomegranate Noir, Midnight in Paris EDP, Feeling Man, Essence of John Galliano, Azzaro pour Homme (vintage),...etc.

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